2012 College Football Bowl Preview

Hello everyone, and welcome to my favorite time of the year, College Football Bowl Season! This year’s matchups include some potentially great games as well as some duds. This article would have been released days ago, but I’ve been going through serious internal debates on who to pick in some of my Toss-Up games. I’ve finally arrived at my final picks (I think), and let’s just say that I’ve been more confident in years past… I’ve divided the picks into four sections: Locks, Safe Bets, Close Calls, and Toss-Ups. These sections ended up evening themselves out fairly well, with 8 or 9 games falling in each. These sections do not consider the spread, but the score prediction should give you a pretty good idea regarding the spread anyway. You will notice that the first couple sections focus on big picture issues with the teams, while the latter sections require more analysis of personnel matchups. Within the sections, they are simply shown in chronological order. I will try my best to eliminate the corporate part of the bowl names (they sound dumb), and refrain from simply using “this conference is better” rationale in my picks. Here they are, and feel free to comment with agreement, disagreement, or your own picks.

LOCKS

Bowls are designed to be fairly even matchups, so there is really no such thing as a lock. With that said, these are the games that I am the most confident about, and I am hoping to go at least 7-2 in this section.
Current Record: 5-2

Hawaii Bowl

December 24^th 8 PM ESPN

Fresno State (9-3) vs. SMU (6-6)

Fresno State will steal the spotlight as SMU returns to head coach June Jones’s old home in the Hawaii Bowl, a Christmas Eve tradition. Fresno State is simply a very good football team, while SMU is inconsistent at best. After a loss to Boise State, Fresno has reeled off five straight wins, with no team coming within 16 points of them. They also gave Oregon their best game of the year other than Stanford. SMU meanwhile, has been hit or miss. Their 6-6 record is full of blowout losses to quality teams, and an ugly loss to 2-10 Tulane. However, they have also played TCU close, and beaten CUSA champion Tulsa in their regular season finale (who FSU lost to). I expect this game to look like a shootout early, but the Bulldog defense will come through in the second half

42-24 Fresno St.

Final: 43-10 SMU

Military Bowl

December 27^th 3 PM ESPN

San Jose State (10-2) vs. Bowling Green (8-4)

Our nation’s capital is home to a matchup of two quality small-conference teams. Neither of these teams have any bad losses, all 6 of their combined losses are to fellow bowl teams. However, Bowling Green is lacking the quality wins that San Jose State has to show that they are on the same level.  The Spartans own wins over San Diego State, Navy, BYU, and Louisiana Tech, while the Falcons’ only win over a team with a winning record was over a reeling Ohio squad. Advantage=San Jose State.

37-20 San Jose St.
Final: 29-20 San Jose St.

Belk Bowl

December 27^th 6:30 PM ESPN

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Duke (6-6)

Renfree

Duke has accomplished a lot this season, making their first bowl game in 18 years. However, after a 33-30 victory over UNC to gain bowl eligibility and move to 6-2, the Blue Devils have lost four straight, and three were not even close. Though Sean Renfree and the Duke offense has led the team to exceed expectations, their defense won’t be able to keep them in the game against a Cincy team who has flown under the radar this year. The Bearcats however, have had a fairly impressive season in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, winning a share of the Big East title yet again.

38-17 Cincy
Final: 48-34 Cincy

Music City Bowl

December 31^st 12 PM ESPN

North Carolina State (7-5) vs. Vanderbilt (8-4)

Midway through the season, both of these teams had very promising performances against top teams. NC State beat then-undefeated Florida State 17-16, while Vandy put up a good fight against then-undefeated Florida. Since then, these teams have gone in different directions. The Wolfpack has gone 3-3 since then, with the three wins coming against the bottom-feeders of the ACC. Meanwhile the Commodores have gone 6-0 since, though the only quality win was over Ole Miss. Plus, Vandy’s Jordan Rodgers has some pretty good blood in him when it comes to being a quarterback.

27-16 Vandy
Final: 38-24 Vandy

Sun Bowl

December 31^st 2 PM CBS

USC (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (6-7)

Barkley and Lee

Georgia Tech is not a very good football team. With that said, USC (especially on defense) has not shown to be all that great either. Both teams will be a bit disappointed to be here, as USC was preseason number 1, and Tech came very close to making a BCS bowl game. The bottom line is that Georgia Tech has a losing record, and USC has too much talent to not capitalize against a subpar team. With Matt Barkley coming back and throwing to Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, the Trojans are poised to shred the Yellow Jacket defense. However, expect Georgia Tech’s triple option attack to give the reeling USC defense some fits as well. In the end, USC just has too much talent to lose this game.

52-30 USC
Final: 21-7 Georgia Tech

Heart of Dallas Bowl

January 1^st 12 PM ESPNU

Purdue (6-6) vs. Oklahoma State (7-5)

These teams have ended the season in vastly contrasting fashion. The Boilermakers needed to win their final three games just to become bowl eligible after losing five straight. Meanwhile the Cowboys have lost their last two to drop them out of the top tier of non-BCS bowl games. With that said, the three Purdue W’s came over Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, while the two Ok St. losses were in OT to Oklahoma, and a close loss to a red hot Baylor team. Look for Oklahoma State’s impressive aerial attack to torch Purdue’s defense. 45 points is probably being generous to Purdue.

45-24 Okie St.
Final: 58-14 Okie St.

Capital One Bowl

January 1^st 1 PM ABC

Georgia (11-2) vs. Nebraska (10-3)

Though the Capital One Bowl is one of the top prizes outside of the BCS, both teams are sure to be disappointed to be here. Georgia was a few yards away from playing for a National Championship, while the Huskers were expecting to play in the Rose Bowl before being trounced by Montee Ball and Wisconsin in the B1G Championship. However, provided Georgia decides to show up (see: games against South Carolina and Kentucky), they should completely overpower Nebraska. Nebraska got completely annihilated by both Ohio State and Wisconsin, and I am pretty confident that neither of those teams is better than the Bulldogs.

41-20 Dawgs
Final: 45-31 Dawgs

Sugar Bowl

January 2^nd 8:30 PM ESPN

Louisville (10-2) vs. Florida (11-1)

Charlie Strong leads Louisville against his former team in the Sugar Bowl. Louisville had its eyes on a perfect season before inexplicably losing to Syracuse and UConn in back to back weeks. Florida had the same hope derailed, but unlike the Cardinals, it came against a Georgia team who was also contending for a title. Louisville has never really looked the part of a 10-2 team, struggling to defeat 0-12 Southern Miss and woeful Florida International along the way. Teddy Bridgewater has been impressive, but will be shut down by one of the best defenses in the country. Florida may not have the offensive capacity to run away with the game, but the defense will keep the Cardinals at bay. The Gators win this one in a more convincing fashion than the score indicates.

30-16 Gators

BCS National Championship

January 7^th 8:30 PM ESPN

Te'o

Notre Dame (12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1)

Yes I have this as a lock. Even if I were to concede that the defenses are equal (which I am hesitant to), the Tide’s offense is so far ahead of the Irish O. Yeldon and Lacy make a scary RB duo, while McCarron is quietly an All-American quarterback. Combine that with EASILY the best offensive line in the country and you get a pretty darn good offense. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s offense is average at best. Notre Dame got taken to the wire by Purdue and Pitt. The only teams to play Alabama close (or win) were Texas A&M, LSU, and Georgia, who are all top 10 teams, and far better than the pair of 6-6 squads that the Irish struggled with. Notre Dame has been a great story and I respect Te’o and hope the Bills draft him, but Bama will be too much for them to handle. As with the Florida game that I had the same score for, this will not be as competitive as that score indicates.

30-16 Bama

Safe Bets

Let’s be clear, some of these are far from safe, but they’re as safe as you’re going to get out of the remaining ¾ of the games. Hopefully I can manage to pull off a 6-3 record or better here.
Current Record: 5-1

New Mexico Bowl

December 15^th 1 PM ESPN

Nevada (7-5) vs. Arizona (7-5)

The first bowl game of the season features two very similar teams. Both Nevada and Arizona are strong offensively, with extremely productive running games. On the other hand, both teams have relatively weak defenses. The difference between the two is the level of competition played, as well as their recent performances. Nevada has lost 4 of 5, while ASU has won 4 of 6, including wins over USC and Washington. More importantly, Nevada’s marquee win of the season is…wait for it…an overtime victory over 4-8 Wyoming. Case closed. If the Wolfpack hadn’t played Boise St. close to finish the season, my prediction would be much more lopsided.

45-35 Zona
Final: 49-48 Zona

New Orleans Bowl

December 22^nd 12 PM ESPN

East Carolina (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)

In another relatively evenly matched game between non-power conference teams, East Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette clash in what is pretty much a home game for the latter. Both teams have strong passing attacks and relatively weak pass defenses, so this could turn into a shootout. The Ragin’ Cajuns do have a more established run game than the Pirates, which should help open up the play action game and further expose the ECU secondary. Also, the only four quality teams that ECU faced ended in 20+ point losses, while ULL was able to give Florida a scare, in addition to beating Western Kentucky and rival Louisiana-Monroe.

37-27 La La
Final: 43-34 La La

Las Vegas Bowl

December 22^nd 3:30 PM

Southwick

Washington (7-5) vs. Boise State (10-2)

It’s very difficult to pick against a team who has defeated two top ten (at the time) teams. However, it is eased a bit when that same team loses to Washington State to close the season. Inconsistency has been the name of the game for Washington this year, as they have beaten Stanford, Oregon St, and San Diego St, but lost to Wazzu and decided not to show up in 31+ point defeats to LSU, Oregon, and Arizona. Boise meanwhile, has played a relatively soft schedule, but they do own victories over Fresno St, BYU, and Nevada, without any particularly bad losses. Keith Price is a good QB for Washington, but has not progressed as much as expected this year, while Joe Southwick has compensated for Kellen Moore’s departure nicely for the Broncos. Chris Petersen always has his team ready to go come bowl season, so I’ll give the edge to Boise St.

27-24 Boise
Final: 28-26 Boise

Texas Bowl

December 28^th 9 PM ESPN

Minnesota (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

The reason that this is not in the lock category is Texas Tech’s inconsistency. The Red Raiders have looked really good at times, particularly in blowing out previously unbeaten West Virginia, and Seth Doege has led one of the top passing offenses in the country. However, this is the same Tech team who has dropped four of their last five, with the only win coming in OT against woeful Kansas. Also, the Red Raiders are involved in a coaching change, as Tommy Tubberville bolted for Cincinnati. Minnesota though, is the definition of an average team. They have beaten bad teams, and even have wins over Purdue and Syracuse, but have lost handily when facing quality competition. Though Tech is on a slide, Minnesota will not have the personnel to match up with the Red Raiders’ offense.

38-23 Tech
Final: 34-31 Tech

Fight Hunger Bowl

December 29^th 4 PM ESPN2

Navy (8-4) vs. Arizona State (7-5)

The Midshipmen get a late start to their bowl preparation after playing Army this past weekend, and now have to plan for the Sun Devils. Arizona St. has a fairly good defense, but that is mostly due to their pass defense, which unfortunately for them, will barely matter against Navy’s option attack. Navy’s offense should have some success running the ball at the Sun Devil front seven, but the extent of that success has proven minimal against quality teams. Navy lost by 40 to Notre Dame, 27 to Penn St, and got shut out by San Jose St. Meanwhile, ASU has closed the season with two wins, one over Arizona, after going 0-4 (but playing competitively) against the gauntlet of Oregon, UCLA, Oregon St, and USC. Navy will move the ball, but won’t be able to do much with their offense when faced with a late deficit and forced to throw.

34-24 ASU
Final: 62-28 ASU

Alamo Bowl

December 29^th 6:45 PM ESPN

Texas (8-4) vs. Oregon State (9-3)

The Alamo Bowl is relatively hard to gauge this year, as both Texas and Oregon St. are undecided as to who will start at quarterback. With that said, I personally think that the edge goes to OSU in that department regardless, as Cody Vaz and Sean Mannion are both more talented than David Ash and Case McCoy. Both teams have cooled off a bit after hot starts. Texas started 8-2 and eyed a BCS bowl before dropping their final two games to TCU and K-State. The Beavers started 6-0 before going 3-3 in the second half of the season, losing to Washington, Stanford, and Oregon. Oregon St. has the advantage when looking at games against top tier opponents, because while they got blown out by Oregon, they played Stanford very close, while Texas got killed by both Oklahoma and K-State. I give the edge here to Oregon St, as I feel that they are simply better on both sides of the ball than the Horns, and their turnover producing secondary will give whichever QB Mack Brown starts fits.

31-20 Beavers
Final: 31-27 Horns

Rose Bowl

January 1^st 5 PM ESPN

Wisconsin (8-5) vs. Stanford (11-2)

Ball

Against most teams this bowl season, I would strongly encourage Wisconsin as an upset pick. Not against Stanford. Stanford is quite possibly the hottest team in the country. In their past four games, the Cardinal have beaten Oregon St, Oregon, and UCLA twice. The Badgers are a much better team than their record indicates, with three of their five losses coming in overtime (Ohio St, Penn St, Michigan St.), and the other two by three points apiece (Oregon St, Nebraska). Additionally, they have an All-American running back in Montee Ball, and are coming off of a 39 point victory over Nebraska to get them to this game. However, Wisconsin relies very heavily on the run, and can’t do much when the other team stops it. Unfortunately for them, Stanford has the best rush defense in the country, even shutting Oregon’s vaunted attack down. It’s going to be tough for the Badgers to move the ball, while Stefan Taylor and the Stanford O should have a bit more success.

27-16 Trees

Fiesta Bowl

January 3^rd 8:30 PM ESPN

Oregon (11-1) vs. Kansas State (11-1)

Ekpre-Olomu

A month ago, if I was told that these two teams were playing in January, I would be convinced that it was for a Championship. Unfortunately, they both fell on the same crazy week, though in drastically different fashion. Oregon’s offense was held in check, and Stanford did just enough to come away with an overtime victory. K-State meanwhile, got absolutely blown out by unranked (but very hot) Baylor.  While Bill Snyder and the Wildcats have been a great story, I still believe that the Ducks are the best team in the country (not that they deserve to be in the championship). The Ducks offense is unparalleled, and Chip Kelly will make sure that they do not get stopped again, while their defense is just getting healthy again in time for bowl season. K-State’s defense looked good earlier in the year, but it has looked much more vulnerable lately (cough*Baylor*cough), and the speed of Marcus Mariota, Kenjon Barner, and De’Anthony Thomas will be too much to handle. On the other side of the ball, Collin Klein will make plays, but Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and Oregon’s opportunistic secondary will force a few key turnovers.

45-27 Ducks

Compass Bowl

January 5^th 1 PM ESPN

Pittsburgh (6-6) vs. Mississippi (6-6)

There are a lot of similarities between these two .500 programs that barely slid into a bowl game. Both teams have looked very good and very bad at times this season, but finished on a strong note. Ole Miss lost by 35 to Texas, 19 to Alabama (not terrible), and 27 to Georgia, but they also kept within three of Johnny Football, and lost a heartbreaker to LSU followed by pounding in-state rival Mississippi St to end the season. Pitt has lost to FCS Youngstown St, gotten killed by Cincy, and lost to UConn, but has also taken #1 Notre Dame to three overtimes, and beaten Rutgers handily prior to a solid season ending victory over South Florida. This game is a very tough call between very similar teams, and would probably fit better in one of the two categories to come. With that said, though Tino Sunseri will have moderate success against the Rebel pass D, if Ole Miss can play the way that they have in their past two games, this will be a very difficult game for Pitt to win.

27-23 Ole Miss

Close Calls

This group consists of games that I definitely lean one way on, but I could very easily see the game going in the opposite direction. A 5-3 record for this category would be considered acceptable, though I am hoping for better.
Current Record: 2-4

Potato Bowl

December 15^th 4:30 PM ESPN

Toledo (9-3) vs. Utah State (10-2)

Fluellen on Lockport

Utah State is probably the most underrated team in the country. If it weren’t for two early season losses to Wisconsin and BYU by a combined five points, the Aggies would likely be a top ten team in a BCS game. Instead, they find themselves matched up against another underrated team with a very good and very underappreciated running back. Toledo RB David Fluellen is from Lockport High School, so he is a point of local pride in Western New York. He was in the top five in rushing yards in the country before an injury sidelined him toward the end of the season. He is expected to be back for this game and should give Utah State’s defense fits. Both teams have had impressive wins this season, as the Aggies have taken down their equally impressive WAC foes San Jose State and Louisiana Tech, while the Rockets have beaten then-undefeated Cincinnati and took Arizona to overtime. This will be a very entertaining game, and Toledo will put up a better fight than most expect, but while both teams have explosive offenses, I expect the better defense to step up late and make a key stop for Utah State.

34-27 Utah St.
Final: 41-15 Utah St.

Pizza Bowl

December 26^th 7:30 PM ESPN

Western Kentucky (7-5) vs. Central Michigan (6-6)

To be perfectly honest, neither of these teams is very good. Central Michigan had an early season win over Iowa, which even BCS bound Northern Illinois couldn’t do, but has since lost all four games they have played against quality opponents by double digits. Western Kentucky had early wins over Kentucky and conference champion Arkansas St, but has since lost to abysmal Florida Atlantic, and struggled against other poor competition. The thing that sets Western Kentucky apart (a bit) from Central is their performance against quality teams. In three losses to good teams (Excluding Bama), the Hilltoppers have only lost by a combined ten points. This leads me to believe that they come to play in big games, and should give them the edge over the Chippewas. Both teams have respectable offenses, but Central’s rush defense won’t be able to hold up against WKU’s run-heavy attack.

27-24 WKU
Final: 24-21 Central

Independence Bowl

December 28^th 2 PM ESPN

Ohio (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Monroe (8-4)

Both Ohio and ULM started off the season very impressively, only to falter at the end. The Warhawks defeated THEN top 10 Arkansas to open the season, and followed that victory by nearly upsetting Auburn and Baylor as well. After that, they rolled off five straight wins. Ohio got off to a 7-0 start, including the season opening upset of Penn St, and even entered the rankings. Since then, these teams have not looked the same. ULM got blown out in two straight following that streak, and though they won two to end the season, the finale was an overtime victory over Florida International. Not overly impressive.­ Ohio meanwhile, has taken a nosedive, losing four of their last five. The Bobcats QB, Tyler Tettleton, has not been himself during the current streak, and will need to get it going for this one, as their recent run-centered offense may have problems with the stout Warhawk run D. Tettleton will step up, but the Ohio defense won’t be able to get a stop to get the ball back to him late in the fourth.

30-27 ULM
Final: 45-14 Ohio

Russell Athletic Bowl

December 28^th 5:30 PM ESPN

Rutgers (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6)

Virginia Tech began this season highly ranked, and expected to contend for the ACC crown behind their vaunted defense and the arm of QB Logan Thomas. Unfortunately, Thomas seemed to regress instead of making the expected strides, while the D has been much less dominant than expected. Rutgers on the other hand, began the season unranked, only to get off to a red hot 7-0 start before enduring a small slide to end the season and ruin their BCS aspirations. The Hokies haven’t been too hot of late either, losing three of five, with unimpressive victories over BC and Virginia to show for it. Rutgers isn’t going to light up the scoreboard, but as long as they can get over the fact that they are playing a 6-6 team instead of being in a BCS bowl, their defense will give Thomas and the Hokie offense loads of trouble.

24-17 Rutgers
Final: 13-10 VT (OT)

Chick-fil-A Bowl

December 31^st 7:30 PM ESPN

LSU (10-2) vs. Clemson (10-2)

Two very good teams will be on display in what will not only be the battle of the Tigers, but the battle to see which team can claim their stadium to be the REAL Death Valley. Both teams had title hopes dashed with early losses to Florida (LSU) and Florida St. (Clemson), and BCS hopes ruined with losses to Bama (LSU), and South Carolina (Clemson). Four very respectable losses overall, and the teams have looked lights-out other than that. LSU has displayed a lockdown defense despite the loss of the Honey Badger, with an offense that has blossomed of late. Clemson has possibly the most explosive offense in the country, with speed and talent at every skill position with Tajh Boyd, DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, and Andre Ellington. However, when facing a very similar South Carolina defense with size up front and speed on the edges, Clemson’s O was held to 17 points. Also, the combination of their D not being able to stop anyone (48 PA against NC St.) and the rejuvenation of LSU’s offense do not bode well for the (Orange) Tigers.

30-20 LSU

Final: 25-24 Clemson
 

Outback Bowl

 January 1^st 1 PM ESPN

South Carolina (10-2) vs. Michigan (8-4)

Robinson

Both of these teams started the year in the top 10 with title aspirations. Michigan’s got crushed right away with a season-opening defeat to Alabama, while South Carolina’s lasted a bit longer before dropping games against LSU and Florida in consecutive weeks. There’s definitely no shame in any of Michigan’s losses, as three came against the top 3 teams in the AP Poll, and the other was against Nebraska in a game where Denard Robinson went down. South Carolina had a few lackluster showings before a convincing win over Clemson to show that they are still one of the best teams in the country. Both teams are without key running backs, as both Marcus Lattimore and Fitzgerald Toussaint were lost for the season. It will also be interesting to see how Michigan chooses to use Devin Gardner and Robinson, but my guess is that Denard will stay primarily at running back with Gardner running the show to compensate for the loss of Fitz. Every part of me wants to pick the Wolverines, but then I keep having flashbacks to a very similarly big and fast Bama defense shutting Michigan’s offense down.

20-13 Cocks
Final: 33-28 Cocks

Cotton Bowl

January 4^th 8 PM FOX

Texas A&M (10-2) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)

Many people were clamoring for a renewal of the Texas A&M vs. Texas rivalry in this game, but due to Northern Illinois’s inclusion in the BCS, the Sooners land here instead. In my opinion, this will make for a much better game in Jerry World. Both of these teams have electric offenses with gunslinging quarterbacks in Johnny Heisman and Landry Jones. The teams’ four losses are against 4 of the top 10 teams in the country (LSU and Florida for A&M, ND and K-State for the Sooners), so these teams could very easily be sitting near the top with more favorable schedules. Both teams have shown to have very inconsistent defenses, as they have looked like stalwarts at times, but on other occasions, the Aggies have given up 57 to Louisiana Tech, while Oklahoma has given up 48+ in two of their last three games. I have to give the edge to the Aggies here, as they have shown no signs of slowing down after the amazing performance against the Tide, while the Sooners have recently struggled with fairly mediocre teams.

45-31 A&M

GoDaddy.com Bowl

January 6^th 9 PM ESPN

Kent State (11-2) vs. Arkansas State (9-3)

The last game before the Title game involves two very good teams who have largely flown under the radar. Kent State suffered an early blowout loss to Kentucky, but set the ship straight to win ten straight and come within an overtime of winning the conference championship and taking a spot in the BCS over Northern Illinois. Arkansas State got off to a 2-3 start, including getting whooped by Oregon (not NEARLY as close as the score suggests) and Nebraska. They have since won seven straight and the Sun Belt crown in the process. In their mid-season victory over then-undefeated Rutgers, the Golden Flashes showed the ability to create turnovers when it matters most. If they can carry this over into their bowl game, as well as get Dri Archer involved early and often in both the running and passing game, Kent St. should be able to pull this out over the currently coachless Red Wolves.

31-27 Golden Flashes

Toss-Ups

In the toss up category, almost all of the games were too close to call the first time that I looked at them. In fact, four or five of them took me over a week to decide on, which is why this article was not out much earlier. I will simply be content with any winning record in this section, as many of these games are almost 50/50 in my view.
Current Record: 5-3

Poinsettia Bowl

December 20^th 8 PM ESPN

BYU (7-5) vs. San Diego State (9-3)

This game is a good one early in bowl season. BYU will rely on its tough defense to slow down the Aztecs’ loaded rushing attack. This is the matchup to watch in the game with the Cougars’ rush D ranked second in the country and the Aztecs’ rush O ranked twelfth. Both of the teams have shown that they can play on the same level as top teams, with BYU losing tight ones to Notre Dame, San Jose St, and Boise St, and beating Utah St. SDSU also lost a close game to San Jose St, along with close losses to Washington and Fresno St, and a victory over Boise. This one could easily go either way, and BYU’s run defense makes them very difficult to pick against, but I have to go with the team on the seven game win streak who is playing in their backyard.

24-20 SDSU
Final: 23-6 BYU

St. Petersburg Bowl

December 21^st 7:30 PM ESPN

Central Florida (9-4) vs. Ball State (9-3)

This is the absolute last pick that I decided on after a week and a half of waffling back and forth. I am currently rethinking it actually. Well I’ll outline why this is such a difficult pick in the meantime. Ball State’s losses were all to teams that are currently ranked, losing to Clemson, Northern Illinois, and Kent State, while beating three bowl teams along the way. UCF’s were almost as tough, losing to Ohio St, Missouri, and Tulsa (twice), and are accompanied by two victories over bowl teams. The Cardinals have won six straight, but recently lost starting QB Keith Wenning (probable for the bowl). The Knights have lost two of four, but that includes a conference championship, and this game will be a home game for them, with the Trop not far from campus. The stats of the starting quarterbacks and running backs for the two teams are eerily similar, with Ball State having a slight edge in overall offensive stats. With that said, UCF has managed to score just as much as Ball State despite the lower yardage totals, and owns a slightly better defense than the Cardinals. Due to this and the home-field advantage, I have to lean ever so slightly toward the Knights.

31-30 UCF
Final: 38-17 UCF

Holiday Bowl

December 27^th 9:45 PM ESPN

Baylor (7-5) vs. UCLA (9-3)

Williams

This is another very, very tough game to call, and will be a very, very entertaining game to watch. Both teams have surprised this season. UCLA was expected to be mediocre at best, while Baylor was supposed to drop off the face of the earth after losing RGIII and Kendall Wright. Instead, UCLA asserted themselves as the best team in South California and almost made the Rose Bowl, and Baylor has made an extremely impressive surge to become bowl eligible, including throttling then-number one Kansas State. In Brett Hundley and Jonathan Franklin, UCLA has one of the best QB-RB combos in the country, and they are complemented by a solid defense. The problem though, is that this defense is very susceptible to the pass. That is where Nick Florence and Terrance Williams, who have immensely eased the pain of losing Griffin and Wright, come in. They anchor one of the top passing offenses in the country, which has carried them to victories over K-State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma St. in the past three games. Their woeful defense has looked at least respectable of late, giving Collin Klein fits, and the team as a whole is one of the hottest in the nation. Hundley and Franklin will have a field day against the Bears’ defense, but the Bruins secondary will not even be able to slow down Florence, Williams, and co. One may ask why Matt Barkley, Marqise Lee, and Robert Woods weren’t able to exploit this secondary, to which I would answer: “I have no idea, which is why I am not overly confident of this pick.” With that said, Baylor is streaking while USC was spiraling at the time, so I have to give the edge to the Bears.

48-41 Baylor
Final: 49-26 Baylor

Armed Forces Bowl

December 29^th 11:45 AM ESPN

Rice (6-6) vs. Air Force (6-6)

Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to Toilet Bowl 2012. Very similar to the UCLA-Illinois game last year (who have gone in completely opposite directions since), both of these teams are simply not good. Rice has won four straight to become bowl eligible, but before considering them “hot”, look at the fact that the four opponents have a combined record of 11-36, and SMU is the only one with over three victories on the year. Air Force has lost 3 of 4 including a loss to 2-10 Army, and all three losses have been by double digits. Staying close with Michigan and beating Nevada both seem like they happened ages ago for the Falcons. However, Rice has a very poor rush defense, and that is never a recipe for success against a triple option team like Air Force.

33-30 Falcons
Final: 33-14 Owls

Pinstripe Bowl

December 29^th 3:15 PM ESPN

West Virginia (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)

West Virginia and Syracuse could not have had more contrasting starts to their seasons. West Virginia started 5-0, and was considered a National Title contender, while Cuse started 2-4 and looked poised to miss a bowl. Oh how the tides have turned. The Mountaineers went on to lose five straight, while the Orange have won five of their last six. Cuse looked like a great team in their blowout upset of then-undefeated Louisville, and following that up with a victory over Missouri proved that it was no fluke. Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Stedman Bailey will have lots of success against a less than daunting Orange defense, but ultimately Ryan Nassib and the Cuse offense will dice the pitiful Mountaineer defense, and run the clock out at the end as West Virginia’s defense will allow one too many first down on the final drive.

45-41 Cuse
Final: 38-14 Cuse

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

December 29^th 10:15 PM

TCU (7-5) vs. Michigan State (6-6)

The brand new Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl will feature two very strong defenses, and two teams who have underachieved this season. TCU hoped to contend in the Big 12 this year, but an absurd amount of personnel losses, including the withdrawal of QB Casey Pachall, threw a wrench in that plan. Trevone Boykin has filled in nicely for him, but other losses have still crippled the team. Michigan State, much like Wisconsin, has many very close losses. The only loss by more than 4 points came at the hands of Notre Dame, and the Spartans still have one of the best defenses in the country. While TCU has looked impressive in its last two, beating Texas and playing the Sooners close, they have not been able to put up too many points against defenses much weaker than MSU’s. Michigan St. may or may not have success against a good TCU defense, but I am confident that the Spartan D will shut the Horned Frogs down.

17-13 MSU
Final: 17-16 MSU

Liberty Bowl

December 31^st 3:30 PM ESPN

Iowa State (6-6) vs. Tulsa (10-3)

In the only rematch of this bowl season, Iowa State takes on Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl. In the season opener, Iowa State won 38-23, but since then, the teams have gone in opposite directions. Tulsa has gone 10-2 since, and won the Conference USA championship, while Iowa State has gone 5-6 and struggled mightily through Big 12 play. In the opener, Iowa State QB Steele Jantz had a big game to key the victory. Jantz was replaced mid-season by Jared Barnett, but after little improvement, Barnett was replaced by true freshman SB Richardson. Richardson is widely regarded to be significantly more talented than the other two, and has played well (7 TDs 0 INTs) in his two starts. Though Tulsa has looked good lately, their mediocre pass defense was torched by Jantz, so I see little to suggest that they would have any more success against SB.

31-28 Cyclones
Final: 31-17 Tulsa

Gator Bowl

January 1^st 12 PM ESPN2

Mississippi State (8-4) vs. Northwestern (9-3)

For Mississippi State, the first and second half of this season could not have been more different. They started 7-0 against weak competition, but finished 1-4 against the brunt of their SEC schedule, losing by at least 17 in each. Northwestern isn’t all that far away from being 11-1, losing to Michigan in OT and Nebraska by one, and has a powerful rushing attack led by QB Kain Colter and RB Venric Mark. Mississippi State has a good defense, but specializes in pass defense with a secondary led by Jim Thorpe award winning DB Johnthan Banks. Unfortunately for them, Northwestern won’t attack much through the air, and their ground game should allow them to grind out a victory.

27-24 NW
Final: 34-20 NW

Orange Bowl

January 1^st 8:30 PM ESPN

Northern Illinois (12-1) vs. Florida State (11-2)

Lynch

Many of you may be saying that this game belongs in the “Lock”, or “Safe Bet” category, but I see it a bit differently. Yes, the Huskies lost to Iowa, but Florida St. lost to NC St, and barely beat Georgia Tech to end the season and take the ACC crown. The Seminoles don’t have all that much motivation going into this game, as they were hoping for a “big time” BCS matchup. Meanwhile Northern Illinois has been hearing for weeks that they don’t belong, so that will fuel them to play the game of their lives. Jordan Lynch is one of the best players in the country, and will lead the Huskies to as much success as they can hope for against the highly ranked Seminole D. Northern Illinois has a good defense as well, and if they force a key EJ Manuel pick or two, could spring the upset. However, the overall size and speed of FSU, especially in the trenches should be the determining factor as they escape the upset bid.

31-27 FSU

By the way, I finished writing this before Mark Schlabach posted his on ESPN this morning, so although they are very similar, they did not factor into my predictions whatsoever.

Overall, I think that means I'm shooting for 23-12 or better. Let's see how it all plays out, thanks for reading!

Current Record:17-10