Mock Draft 2013
This may be my only mock draft
of the pre-draft season, but I just find earlier mock drafts to be completely
pointless. Here is my prediction as to how the first round will shake out next
Thursday, obviously not accounting for potential trades that are sure to
happen, but are simultaneously impossible to predict. Each player name contains a link to their respective NFL Draft Profile created by nfl.com's Erick Ward (with the exceptions of Keenan Allen and Jonathan Cyprien) for your viewing pleasure. Enjoy!
Uncertainty
about Brandon Albert’s future with the team along with the arrival of Alex
Smith at QB makes this pick a no-brainer. Joekel will solidify Smith’s
blindside for years to come.
Freakishly
athletic pass-rusher would give the Jags an element they haven’t had in quite a
while. Could also go Milliner here, but Jordan’s athleticism may be too great
to pass up.
Raiders
front-office were the only ones at Floyd’s pro day, so the interest is there.
Good penetration skills and playing in the toughest NCAA conference helps justify
his selection at #3.
This is a team
that needs a lot of help in a lot of areas, none more so than offensive line.
It seems as though the Eagles OL is in shambles every year, and they’re not
getting any younger. Eric Fisher is athletic and fits the prototypical mold of
a LT in Chip Kelly’s system, so the Eagles pull the trigger on Fisher here.
LT is a
glaring need for the Lions with the retirement of Jeff Backus, and keeping Matt
Stafford upright should be priority number 1 for a team trying to rebound from
a disappointing 2012. High-ceiling tackle that could be essential in opening
holes for Reggie Bush in the running game, if Milliner is still available here,
it becomes a very difficult decision picking between the two.
Somebody is going to make the mistake of
drafting Smith early on, so why not the Browns and new GM Mike Lombardi, who
made it well-known that he does not like Brandon Weeden as his QB of the future?
Ezekiel Ansah could also be a good possibility here.
The first
offensive guard to go, Warmack may be the highest rated player on this draft
board but falls due to position needs. Warmack is a bulldozer in the run game
which would bring an added dimension to the Cardinals attack, will bolster a
shaky OL, and give Carson Palmer some more time to find Larry Fitzgerald
downfield.
Ideally, the
Bills find a partner to trade down with here and select a QB later in the round
while also gaining a couple more picks. Should they keep the pick however, it’s
looking more and more likely that they pull the trigger on a QB here with the
Jets now possessing two of the next five picks. Buddy Nix really believes there
is a franchise quarterback in this draft, and if this is the case, there’s no
sense in waiting to select him. The question of which one remains to be seen.
In this scenario Geno Smith is gone, although I don’t think he was their pick
before. The two QBs that are highest on the Bills list appear to be Matt
Barkley and Ryan Nassib. This is where the choice gets interesting as the Bills
coaching staff is linked to Nassib for obvious reasons, but Doug Marrone is onrecord discussing his immense love for Barkley at the position. In the end, I
believe overall talent and potential trumps familiarity and more immediate
success. Barkley possesses great touch and accuracy downfield, something Nassib
somewhat struggles with. While Nassib may have a bigger arm, analysts have
wildly underrated Barkley’s arm strength during the pre-draft process. In
making it seem like Barkley has the arm of a Cliff Pennington, we as fans are
being mislead in that his arm at the next level compares more to that of a Matt
Schaub or Phillip Rivers (only comparing arm strength here, so relax). Not a cannon arm by any means, but still
certainly able to make all the throws, Barkley just appears to be the more
polished, NFL ready quarterback despite being the victim of a less than spectacular
senior season (or was it…).
Should the
draft unfold this way, Rex Ryan will be salivating at the prospects of
unleashing Mingo on opposing offenses. Kiki has enormous potential, and Ryan
would pounce on the chance to help him realize said potential. With the insane
speed that Mingo possesses, he could evolve into one of the game’s top
pass-rushers once he adds more strength.
So Chris
Johnson wasn’t completely horrible last year, and what better way to help your
most talented offensive weapon than solidify your offensive line? While Cooper
may not be the run blocker that Warmack is, he is certainly very well-rounded
and would be a great all-around guard for the Titans.
If the
Chargers don’t trade up to acquire a top 3 left-tackle, they could certainly
trade down here to stockpile picks and get more value at OL later in the round.
Not assuming any trades, Rhodes is the pick here because he fits a need at CB
and is a solid value in this spot. Physical, press corner that brings up
comparisons to a former Chargers corner with a fitting name for the position,
Quentin Jammer.
This is a
best-case scenario for the Dolphins, as Ansah falls and presents a perfect fit
across from Cameron Wake in their 3-4 scheme. Ziggy Ansah provides another
speed-rush threat from the other side that would help the Dolphins wreak havoc
on opposing offensive lines.
I was tempted
to put a QB here, but it looks like the Jets are going down with Sanchez, as is
Rex Ryan’s job. If Ryan wants to salvage this seemingly already lost season,
he’ll need to get Sanchez all the help he can get. Austin provides a home-run
threat every time he touches the ball, but I expect some team to trade up to
take him before this pick.
14. Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei, DT
The Panthers are most likely going
with the best DT available here, and Lotulelei falling to 14 seems unlikely,
but the Raiders really like Floyd. Lotulelei can provide the pass-rushing NT
the Panthers sorely need, and can also kick outside to a 3-4 DE if need be.
Quite possibly the steal of the draft, Star, along with Luke Keuchly, should
solidify the middle of the Panthers D for years to come.
The Saints
grab the first true linebacker of the draft, and assuming the injury concerns
aren’t too great, they will be getting a guy that really knows how to pressure
the quarterback and be a disruptive force in the backfield. Not as strong in
pass coverage, but the Saints most likely just want him for his innate ability
to bring pressure.
With the first
of two first round selections, the Rams look to give Sam Bradford some much
needed help on the outside by drafting the dynamic Patterson. While he may be a
very high-risk player, Jeff Fisher may be the perfect coach to take on said
risk and reap the equally high rewards (see Jenkins, Janoris).
17. Pittsburgh
Steelers: Tyler Eifert, TE
With the
Steelers missing out on two valued targets in the previous two picks, I could
see them trading down in this scenario. Otherwise, I could see them drafting
Eifert here to give them another weapon and add a new dimension to the passing
game after losing Mike Wallace.
When can we
officially stop calling Dallas “America’s Team”? They haven’t advanced to the
NFC Championship game since the late 90’s, and annually struggle to even make
the postseason nowadays. Kenny Vaccaro could help end that streak and provide a
big boost to a Cowboys secondary that struggled last season in pass-coverage,
but he isn’t shy to step in the box and stuff a running back here and there.
The Cowboys would be foolish to pass on this potential Pro Bowl caliber safety.
Ogletree can
provide great athleticism at inside or outside linebacker, and if the Giants
look past his trouble off the field, they could be getting a top 10 talent at
this spot to help solidify a weak linebacking corp. DJ Fluker is also a
possibility here, but Tom Coughlin really loves spending first round picks on
his defense. Dark horse: DJ Hayden.
The need to
replace Brian Urlacher is glaring, and Brown can step in on day one and provide
sure-tackling in the middle of the defense while developing into a leader later
on in his career. Very underrated player that could be a pleasant surprise in
this spot that may look like a slight reach at first.
The potential
for Andre Smith to leave Cincinnati at some point is very real, so securing his
future replacement in this spot would be a smart move. You can never go wrong
with a former Alabama player (ok, almost never), and Fluker projects to be a
very solid NFL lineman, although he may project better as a guard.
The Rams have
a surprisingly solid defense under Jeff Fisher, but they do have a need at safety,
where there could be three possibilities here (Cyprien, Elam, or Reid). I feel
that Cyprien could best provide the hard-hitting, attitude setting, turnover
machine loved by Fisher.
We all know
about the questions surrounding Te’o, but we also know that the guy simply
knows how to play football. A natural leader, Te’o is normally a sure tackler
(when he isn’t getting pummeled by the Crimson Tide) but may be a bit slow and
undersized. Great instincts in pass coverage, he can provide good value for the
Vikes in this spot.
The Colts were
the feel good story of the league last year, but their defensive line did
nothing to help them. They had the second-worst QB pressure rate in the league,
so Carradine could raise that rate a bit, especially following the loss of
Dwight Freeney. He is coming off an injury, but tested phenomenally well at his
pro day, helping to secure his worth as a first round selection.
Allen may have
run a slow 40, but he is coming off of a knee injury. A player in the mold of
Anquan Boldin, Allen runs solid routes and aggressively uses his height to
attack balls at their highest point. Once healthy, he could turn out to be the
best receiver in this class.
Offensive line
may be a need as well, but following the loss of Charles Woodson, the Packers
desperately need help in the back end of an already shoddy pass defense. Reid
can be a day one starter for the Packers and fill in nicely where Woodson left
off.
The Texans
have a need at OL and WR, but I don’t see another lineman worthy of a first
round selection. There is no denying Hunter’s offensive abilities, but its his
off-field troubles that have teams worried.
Hopefully some tutelage under Andre Johnson can correct this problem and
help Hunter evolve into a solid number 2 receiver.
Werner’s draft
stock has been in a steady decline since peaking at number 2 in some mocks due
to his unspectacular workouts since the evaluation process began. There is no
denying his in-game production however, and could provide the Broncos with a
solid pass rusher to compliment Von Miller and fill in for the loss of Elvis
Dumervil.
The Patriots
could use help at CB, DL, and OL, but Trufant provides great value here as he
projects as somewhat of a higher pick that could drop due to some mental lapses
and lack of physicality in coverage. He does have potential though to be a
high-turnover player that would be a great help to this questionable Patriots
secondary.
30. Atlanta
Falcons: Zach Ertz, TE
With the
ever-growing importance of having pass catching tight ends in today’s NFL,
paired with the fact that this is most likely Tony Gonzalez’s final season, selecting
Ertz here would be a wise choice. Gives them yet another offensive weapon and
also sets them up for after T-Gon retires. Don’t rule out a patented Falcons
trade-up here to make a run at one of the draft’s top CBs.
Hunt is a
giant on the defensive line and could be a future replacement for Justin Smith.
Very physical player that is surprisingly quick, Hunt has the potential to be a
mix of Justin Smith with a J.J. Watt like ability to bat down passes.
The Ravens
could potentially go S, LB, or DE here, but I think Woods gives them the best
chance to succeed this year by complimenting Torrey Smith with a truly great
route runner with great hands (sound familiar?).
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