NFL Playoffs: AFC/NFC Wild Card Analysis

It's the most wonderful time of the year ladies and gentlemen. The NFL playoffs are starting Saturday and of course I decided to breakdown each game for the Wild Card round. I will breakdown match ups every week through the Super Bowl. Playoffs are crazy in every sport and you have to expect the unexpected, so hopefully my picks are close! Enjoy!

My regular season picks record: 162-94

AFC Wild Card

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ Houston Texans (12-4)

J.J. Watt

Over the last couple seasons, the Bengals have become legitimate contenders in the tough AFC North. Their 2012 campaign started 3-5 through the first half of the season. Cincinnati finished with a 7-1 record in the second half including wins against divisional opponents Baltimore and Pittsburgh in their final two games. With a solid defense and playmaking connection between Andy Dalton and AJ Green, the Bengals always have a decent shot. However, I have the Texans winning this matchup. Although Houston cruised to wins most of the season, they managed to drop three of their last four match ups. Defensive end JJ Watt has been a freak of nature this season, racking up 20.5 sacks and deflecting an astonishing 16 passes. If that doesn't spell out defensive player of the year, I don't know what does. The Texans and Bengals had a playoff bout last year that ended in a 31-10 victory in favor of Houston. JJ Watt may have foreshadowed this season during that game with an incredible play in which he intercepted Andy Dalton and ran it back for a touchdown. Expect him to be a presence, making it a difficult day for Dalton and the offense. Not only are the Texans set on defense, Arian Foster has had another successful season in the running game. Although the offense sputtered in the last few games of the season, I see Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and the rest of the crew picking it up in this game. 

Houston: 27-20

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6) 

Chuck Pagano

The Ravens have proven to be tough opponents in the first round of the playoffs, and I don't see that changing this year. Many believe the Colts can pull out a win in Baltimore behind their rookie leader, Andrew Luck. The Colts have had an unbelievable season after clearing house and bringing in many rookies. I thought Indianapolis may end up with two wins at the end of the season and here they are. After head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with cancer, the team strived to an 11-5 record, mostly with their coach in the hospital. It shows what teammates can do when plagued with a tragedy like that. This game definitely is not an easy decision in my mind, but I have to go with the experienced, yet injured Ravens. With the Ravens being at home, Joe Flacco should not be rattled. He has played very well at times this year, but he is very inconsistent and does not play well at all on the road. Although the Ravens are playing with an injured Terrell Suggs and no Lardarius Webb, Ray Lewis is returning for his final home game ever. However, I believe this will be Lewis' last win ever as well.

Ravens: 26-17

NFC Wild Card

Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Adrian Peterson

To put a long season into a short phrase: Adrian Peterson ran the Vikings into the playoffs. After tearing his ACL and MCL at the end of last season, it took Adrian Peterson one off season to recover from an injury that usually takes about one year of rehab. Not only did he end up playing this season, but he came just 8 yards short of Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record with 2,097 yards. In fact the Vikings needed to win last Sunday against their divisional opponent, the Green Bay Packers, in order to make it into the playoffs. Minnesota ended up squeezing out a 37-34 victory over the Packers, led by none other than Adrian Peterson who had 199 yards on the day. His best success has come against the Packers this season with 409 total yards rushing. Knowing these phenomenal stats, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are still a very different beast in the playoffs. Especially with the game being in the frigid air of Lambeau Field, I don't feel like the Vikings will pull this one out. In their last matchup against the Vikings, Rodgers had 365 yards passing with four touchdowns and no picks in a losing effort. Don't expect Christian Ponder to lead the Vikings to 37 points again, especially at playoff time at Lambeau.

Packers: 34-17

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Washington Redskins (10-6)

Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III

This is a very interesting game and was a hard one to pick. Both teams are riding on the backs of their star rookie quarterbacks that have opened many eyes this year. Everyone knew this was a special draft class when it came to the quarterback position, but no one could have predicted the success of these rookies to be so quick. Russell Wilson went into training camp as the projected backup to Matt Flynn, who the Seahawks recently acquired from the Packers. But once Wilson arrived at training camp, he used both his speed and accuracy to win the starting job. Robert Griffin III came right into the league knowing he would start and has been very successful in doing so. Both teams run a dynamic read option offense that keeps the defense on their toes. RGIII and his rookie partner in crime, Alfred Morris, have combined to produce the number one rushing attack in the NFL. If I'm a Washington fan, RGIII's knee would still worry me after injuring it against the Ravens. Washington did come out with the win in Dallas to make the playoffs, but RGIII clearly wasn't himself during his scrambles. He definitely does not look 100% to me at least. I believe the big deciding factor comes down to the better defense, and this clearly goes to the Seahawks. With the performance enhancing drug suspension issues behind Seattle's starting cornerbacks, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, the defense seems to be in great shape. Of course you can't forget about "Beast Mode", Marshawn Lynch, who will have his fair share of productive carries this game. As long as the man has his Skittles, nothing can stop him. If this game was in Seattle, this decision would be easier for me. But, i'll take the Seahawks in this game ending RGIII's rookie campaign.

Seattle: 23-20

My Super Bowl prediction: 

I will do a pre game analysis for each game in the playoffs, but this bracket below is my overall prediction for the playoffs. Of course the playoffs are a whole new animal and teams can get hot at the perfect time. Anything can happen at anytime, and this is why picking playoff games can be tough. My pick this year is the Denver Broncos winning over the Green Bay Packers. We all know what Peyton Manning is capable of, but not many people expected this kind of season. The Broncos started 2-3 in their first five games and have not lost since week five. I don't think eleven straight wins is a coincidence. It was well documented that the run heavy offense with Tim Tebow last season really held back the talents of wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Peyton has developed a great chemistry with these receivers as each went over 1,000 yards receiving and had a combined 23 touchdowns. Not only that, the Broncos have weapons on defense that can thrive in the playoffs. Cornerback Champ Bailey has been a solid shutdown corner for many years now and on the other side of him is Tracy Porter (if he is able to return from his concussion). Remember, ironically Tracy Porter is the corner that picked off Peyton Manning to seal the New Orleans Saints victory in Super Bowl XLIV. Experience like that is huge in the playoffs. And then of course the Broncos have elite pass rushers involving Von Miller with 18.5 sacks and Elvis Dumervil with 11. These guys can single handedly win the game if they are not maintained. Having home field advantage in the playoffs is definitely a big help for Denver. In my opinion, the game that would be their biggest test is the Patriots. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren't afraid of going on the road or high altitudes for that matter. The one kryptonite the Patriots seem to have is the New York Giants, who recently beat them in two Super Bowls but have failed to make the big show this year as defending champions. The reason they beat the  Patriots in two Super Bowls? An elite pass rush. In my opinion, if the Broncos can get their pass rushers going, they have the tools to surpass the Patriots.