NFL Wild Card
Breakdown/ Playoff Predictions
By: Matt Salazar
It’s the
best time of the year folks, NFL playoff time. Although the Bills are once
again not a part of the playoff picture, many of the top stories from this NFL
season are still being written. Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson both
continue their improbable comeback seasons into the playoffs, Chuck Pagano
returning from his bout with leukemia to coach a playoff game after a 2011
season that saw his team finish 2-14, and Russell Wilson and the Seahawks
seeming to be the team of destiny all are leading toward this being an
unforgettable January.
In this
blog, I’ll break down the Wild Card games and predict the winner of each
matchup throughout the playoffs including my Super Bowl prediction. Further
breakdowns will come each week once matchups are set, not based on my own
predictions. So here we go!
AFC Wild Card Round:
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
In this
rematch of last season’s wild card round, the Bengals once again travel to
Houston as the six-seed to take on a very tough Texans team. When you look at
both teams, one glaring question stands out: What has changed since last year?
After looking at both teams’ body of work and roster, the answer to that
question is: Not much. Both teams are running out basically identical lineups
from last year, the only real exceptions being the emergence of Geno Atkins,
Bengals NT, and J.J. Watt, Texans DE, as two of the league’s premier defensive
linemen (although you may argue that Watt’s coming out party was this matchup
in last year’s playoffs, highlighted by this outstanding play).
I don’t see
Geno making a big enough difference for the Bengals, but Watt was on the verge
of breaking the single-season sack record and should be able to disrupt the
Dalton-to-Green connection that has really been the Bengals only true offensive
threat. If Watt can aid Jonathan Joseph in neutralizing Green, I see this game
having the same result as last year. Also note that Matt Schaub did not play in
this matchup last year. The Texans’ QB that day was none other than T.J. Yates.
I’d say that’s just a slight upgrade
in talent.
Bengals
simply get outclassed once again in this one. Texans win 27-13.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
This is the
most difficult game to predict in the wild-card round, as the Ravens stumbled
into the postseason with a more talented team, and the Colts rode the emotion
of the “ChuckStrong” season to an improbable postseason berth. Before
yesterday, I was completely set on picking the Colts to win this game, but then
Ray Lewis threw a wrench into my plans by announcing his intent to retire after
the season. What better way to light a fire under the seemingly uninspired
Ravens than to give them a true reason to win: Get one for Ray.
This game
has turned into a complete toss-up. My thoughts are, Ray Lewis has put a great
deal of motivation into the team with his announcement, the Ravens always play
better at home, and despite the emotion involved with Chuck Pagano this season,
how far can the Colts really go with a vastly inferior roster?
I think the
Colts put up a very good effort, but ultimately the Ravens have a more talented
roster, and Flacco has to do something to
raise his free-agent stock right? Ravens
win 23-20.
NFC Wild Card Round:
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
I’ll keep
this one relatively short. As great as Adrian Peterson is (and yes I think his
play this year should earn him the MVP), I don’t see the Packers allowing him
to have a third field day against them in the same season (409 yards in two games vs. Pack this season so far). Christian Ponder
(who has never played a football game in cold weather) has been so middling
this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers keep 7-10 players in the
box at all times to limit Peterson. The Vikes D won’t hold the Packers offense,
and if the Pack can succeed in holding Peterson down, this one could get pretty
one-sided.
Look for
the Pack to hold Peterson down long enough to build a lead. Once that happens,
it’s over. Packers win 31-21.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins
I feel as
though I may have different thoughts than others on this game, but facts are
facts: The Seahawks simply are not the same team on the road (outdoors that
is). The Seahawks finished the season 11-5, but were 8-0 at home. While that is
great, the Seahawks are not playing in Seattle this weekend. In going 3-5 on
the road this season, exactly zero of the three wins came against other playoff
teams. Not coincidentally, Russell Wilson’s home-road splits are as follows:
Home – 18 TD, 2 INT, Away – 9 TD, 8 INT. Washington also has a very stout rush
defense, so the Hawks offense could have a tough time this weekend. On the
other side of the ball, the Seahawks defense is one of the top units in the
league, but that will be put to the test trying to stop RG3. The x-factor of
this game may rest on the legs of two
rookie quarterbacks. Who thought that would be the case in a playoff game at
the beginning of the season? Not me.
Another
week of rest for RG3’s knee should bode well for the Redskins chances, and
riding the emotion of their first home playoff game in 13 years won’t hurt
either. Redskins win 20-16.
Divisional Round
Matchups:
If my
predictions prove true, the divisional round will be as follows:
AFC: Texans at Patriots, Ravens at Broncos
NFC: Redskins at Falcons, Packers at 49ers
I won’t get
in depth here, because we don’t know the outcomes of this weekend’s games yet,
but here are my predictions for the rest of the way if the games go my way:
AFC Divisional Round:
·
Patriots over Texans 34-24.
·
Broncos over Ravens 23-21.
NFC Divisional Round:
·
Falcons over Redskins 42-28.
·
Packers over 49ers 27-26.
AFC Championship:
·
Patriots over Broncos 30-20.
·
Packers over Falcons 37-34.
Super Bowl
·
Packers over Patriots 41-38.
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