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Thursday, January 3, 2013

NFL Wild Card Breakdown/Playoff Predictions


NFL Wild Card Breakdown/ Playoff Predictions
By: Matt Salazar

            It’s the best time of the year folks, NFL playoff time. Although the Bills are once again not a part of the playoff picture, many of the top stories from this NFL season are still being written. Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson both continue their improbable comeback seasons into the playoffs, Chuck Pagano returning from his bout with leukemia to coach a playoff game after a 2011 season that saw his team finish 2-14, and Russell Wilson and the Seahawks seeming to be the team of destiny all are leading toward this being an unforgettable January.
            In this blog, I’ll break down the Wild Card games and predict the winner of each matchup throughout the playoffs including my Super Bowl prediction. Further breakdowns will come each week once matchups are set, not based on my own predictions. So here we go!

AFC Wild Card Round:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
           
            In this rematch of last season’s wild card round, the Bengals once again travel to Houston as the six-seed to take on a very tough Texans team. When you look at both teams, one glaring question stands out: What has changed since last year? After looking at both teams’ body of work and roster, the answer to that question is: Not much. Both teams are running out basically identical lineups from last year, the only real exceptions being the emergence of Geno Atkins, Bengals NT, and J.J. Watt, Texans DE, as two of the league’s premier defensive linemen (although you may argue that Watt’s coming out party was this matchup in last year’s playoffs, highlighted by this outstanding play).
            I don’t see Geno making a big enough difference for the Bengals, but Watt was on the verge of breaking the single-season sack record and should be able to disrupt the Dalton-to-Green connection that has really been the Bengals only true offensive threat. If Watt can aid Jonathan Joseph in neutralizing Green, I see this game having the same result as last year. Also note that Matt Schaub did not play in this matchup last year. The Texans’ QB that day was none other than T.J. Yates. I’d say that’s just a slight upgrade in talent.
            Bengals simply get outclassed once again in this one. Texans win 27-13.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

            This is the most difficult game to predict in the wild-card round, as the Ravens stumbled into the postseason with a more talented team, and the Colts rode the emotion of the “ChuckStrong” season to an improbable postseason berth. Before yesterday, I was completely set on picking the Colts to win this game, but then Ray Lewis threw a wrench into my plans by announcing his intent to retire after the season. What better way to light a fire under the seemingly uninspired Ravens than to give them a true reason to win: Get one for Ray.
            This game has turned into a complete toss-up. My thoughts are, Ray Lewis has put a great deal of motivation into the team with his announcement, the Ravens always play better at home, and despite the emotion involved with Chuck Pagano this season, how far can the Colts really go with a vastly inferior roster?
            I think the Colts put up a very good effort, but ultimately the Ravens have a more talented roster, and Flacco has to do something to raise his free-agent stock right? Ravens win 23-20.

NFC Wild Card Round:

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

            I’ll keep this one relatively short. As great as Adrian Peterson is (and yes I think his play this year should earn him the MVP), I don’t see the Packers allowing him to have a third field day against them in the same season (409 yards in two games vs. Pack this season so far). Christian Ponder (who has never played a football game in cold weather) has been so middling this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers keep 7-10 players in the box at all times to limit Peterson. The Vikes D won’t hold the Packers offense, and if the Pack can succeed in holding Peterson down, this one could get pretty one-sided.
            Look for the Pack to hold Peterson down long enough to build a lead. Once that happens, it’s over. Packers win 31-21.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins

            I feel as though I may have different thoughts than others on this game, but facts are facts: The Seahawks simply are not the same team on the road (outdoors that is). The Seahawks finished the season 11-5, but were 8-0 at home. While that is great, the Seahawks are not playing in Seattle this weekend. In going 3-5 on the road this season, exactly zero of the three wins came against other playoff teams. Not coincidentally, Russell Wilson’s home-road splits are as follows: Home – 18 TD, 2 INT, Away – 9 TD, 8 INT. Washington also has a very stout rush defense, so the Hawks offense could have a tough time this weekend. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks defense is one of the top units in the league, but that will be put to the test trying to stop RG3. The x-factor of this game may rest on the legs of two rookie quarterbacks. Who thought that would be the case in a playoff game at the beginning of the season? Not me.
            Another week of rest for RG3’s knee should bode well for the Redskins chances, and riding the emotion of their first home playoff game in 13 years won’t hurt either. Redskins win 20-16.

Divisional Round Matchups:
            If my predictions prove true, the divisional round will be as follows:
AFC: Texans at Patriots, Ravens at Broncos
NFC: Redskins at Falcons, Packers at 49ers

            I won’t get in depth here, because we don’t know the outcomes of this weekend’s games yet, but here are my predictions for the rest of the way if the games go my way:
AFC Divisional Round:
·      Patriots over Texans 34-24.
·      Broncos over Ravens 23-21.
NFC Divisional Round:
·      Falcons over Redskins 42-28.
·      Packers over 49ers 27-26.

AFC Championship:
·      Patriots over Broncos 30-20.
·      Packers over Falcons 37-34.

Super Bowl
·      Packers over Patriots 41-38.

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