A week this crazy in college football calls for a lot of movement at the top, and these rankings stay true to that. Enjoy, and if you are curious about the factors that these rankings consider, see my original rankings from a few weeks back.
Note: 5 through 8 are very tight, so any of them can easily take any of those positions by the smallest of factors. Same with 9 through 14 for those of you thinking Stanford should be higher. (19-23 as well)
1. Notre Dame 2.809
2. Alabama 2.800
3. Oregon 2.780
4. Florida 2.736
5. Kansas St. 2.677
6. Ohio St. 2.675
7. Florida St. 2.674
8. Texas A&M 2.671
9. Georgia 2.622
10. LSU 2.616
11. Nebraska 2.610
12. Clemson 2.602
13. Oklahoma 2.595
14. Stanford 2.594
15. South Carolina 2.542
16. Oregon St. 2.498
17. Oklahoma St. 2.491
18. Rutgers 2.455
19. UCLA 2.444
20. Northern Illinois 2.440
21. San Jose St. 2.438
22. Michigan 2.434
23. Texas 2.430
24. Utah St. 2.412
25. Kent St. 2.393
Other Notable Teams
26. Louisville 2.368
27. Boise St. 2.355
28. Arizona 2.348
29. Fresno St. 2.346
30. Mississippi St. 2.336
35. USC 2.311
36. Wisconsin 2.287
37. Penn St. 2.282
45. Vanderbilt 2.234
46. North Carolina 2.221
50. TCU 2.148
51. Michigan St. 2.139
56. Syracuse 2.091
60. Baylor 2.074
60. Miami (FL) 2.074
63. West Virginia 2.050
64. Duke 2.008
65. Ole Miss 2.000
68. Virginia Tech 1.982
90. Auburn 1.739
96. BUFFALO 1.697
Bottom Five
120. Akron 1.299
121. Southern Miss 1.244
122. Hawaii 1.234
123. New Mexico St. 1.205
124. Massachusetts 1.175
Monday, November 19, 2012
Monday, November 12, 2012
Mathieu's Second Half Bold Predictions
Second Half Bold Predictions
The first
half of the NFL is in the books officially for every team in the league now,
and while some of my preseason predictions have been right, most have been just
a tiny bit off to say the least. This column is my chance to right my wrongs
and correctly predict every important aspect (10 of them at least) for the
second half of the season. So without further ado, here is my list of 10 bold
predictions for the second half. *This
column was written prior to this weeks games*
1). Chuck Pagano
will be back on the sidelines in time to coach the Colts to their first playoff
win without Peyton Manning in what seems like forever.
Is the bold
part of this prediction the fact that Pagano will coach again this season, that
the Colts will make the playoffs, or
that the Colts will win a playoff
game? It could be any or all of the above. After Pagano’s awe-inspiring post
game speech last week (which made me want to run through a wall for the guy) it
appears as though he’s making progress in his fight against leukemia, and it is
now known that his cancer is in remission and Bruce Arians fully expects him to
lead the team out of the tunnel before the season is over. The team has been
through a lot already this season, and with the help of rookie phenom Andrew
Luck, the Colts are much closer to the post season than many thought they’d be.
The team is playing inspired and with determination, and is clearly the story
of the season in the NFL and probably the story of the year in all of sports.
What better ending would this story have than to see the inspired team ride the
emotions and will of their coach into an extremely improbable run at the
playoffs after choosing first overall in the preceding draft. With the Colts in
the middle of a future 30 for 30 film, I think this team is simply destined to
make the postseason, and possibly even more.
The most
likely scenario here is the Colts earning the 6th seed in the AFC,
likely setting them up for a first round showdown with the Ravens (likely 3
seed). Andrew Luck vs. the Ravens secondary is a very favorable matchup, so if
the Colts make it there, who’s to say they have to lose in the first round?
2.) By season’s
end, Jay Cutler’s name will be among the ranks of the NFL’s elite QBs.
As streaky
as Jay Cutler is, he may very well be the most talented quarterback in the NFL.
When he’s on, Cutler has the arm strength, accuracy, and awareness to make any
throw on the field. When he’s off however, his passes don’t hit the ground
because opposing defensive backs are busy running them back for scores. Most of
the problem for Cutler in his time in Chicago has been his lack of a true
receiver (Devin Hester doesn’t count), and his lack of protection on the
offensive line. Now that Cutler is reunited with Brandon Marshall though, he’s
been a changed quarterback (aside from his 4 INT fiasco against the Packers).
Marshall is among the NFL’s elite at receiver, and is that not because of
Cutler? Before this season, Marshall’s last truly dominant season was back with
the Broncos, where Cutler was slinging him passes. But how does any of this
make Cutler eligible to join the “Elite QB Club”? Well…
3.) Jay Cutler will be named Super Bowl XLVII MVP.
This
just seems like the Bears year doesn’t it? Am I really alone here? Yes the
Falcons are unbeaten, yes the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, yes the Texans are
physically dominant, and yes both Mannings are once again leading winning
teams. But none of these teams have the defense of the Bears. A defense that
takes the ball away from opposing offenses more than any other, and then takes
those turnovers straight into the end zone for an easy 6, makes this Bears team
different from the past. The personnel on this Bears defense is largely
unchanged however, and the last time the Bears’ defense was this good, they
lost Super Bowl XLI to Peyton Manning and the Colts. The difference? The Bears’
QB that season was none other than “Sexy” Rexy Grossman. The name says it all
doesn’t it? Needless to say, Jay Cutler is not Rex Grossman. If Cutler plays
that game rather than Grossman, the Bears likely win after holding Peyton
Manning in check for the better portion of the evening. This year’s Bears
defense isn’t intimidated by anybody, so they likely won’t be scared to see the
opposing signal-caller in this year’s Super Bowl. Who will that be you ask?
Well they always say history repeats itself, so…
4.) In a rematch of Super Bowl XX, the Chicago Bears will defeat…The
New England Patriots.
Before
this season started, the team in the NFL with the most hype was not the
defending Super Bowl champs; it was the Super Bowl runner-ups, the Patriots.
Analysts were predicting a big season for the Patsies, even a few whispers of
another 16-0 campaign. This was not without good reason, what with last
season’s emergence of “The Gronk”, this season’s addition of Brandon Lloyd, the
draft helping retool the defense (although they still can’t defend the pass),
and oh yeah, they still have a quarterback ranked in the top 5 in NFL HISTORY.
Those whispers of going undefeated ended quickly though, as the Patriots lost
in week 2 and stumbled out to a 3-3 start. But isn’t this year’s Patriots team
more talented than it was a year ago, a year in which they still made the Super Bowl? Shouldn’t it be easier to make the big
game this year with a more talented team in a weaker AFC? I think so. Tom Brady
is still Tom Brady, and he has phenomenal chemistry with Gronkowski, Welker,
and Lloyd and Hernandez when they are healthy.
The difference maker this year is out of the Pats’ control, however. The conference is weaker as a whole, with the exception of the Texans. The Ravens are weaker on defense and Flacco seems to not have taken any major steps forward, the Bengals have regressed, the Steelers’ defense is another year older (Polamalu has yet to string healthy games together), so the only real threat is the Texans. I believe the Texans do not match up well with the Patriots, and you will all see why when they meet in week 14. The best way to defeat the Patriots is with an explosive passing attack, which the Texans do not possess, or by knocking down Brady, which is Watt’s specialty, but the Hoodie will game plan around him (the Giants have 5 legitimate pass rushing threats, more than Houston). The Texans run, run, then play-action. That is enough to fool some teams with weaker linebackers and coaching (Buffalo Bills anyone?), but may not be enough against more elite teams (Texans lost to the Packers. By a lot.). The Texans have been magnificent on defense, mostly thanks to Watt swatting passes, but again, I fully expect the Patriots to game plan around him. The Pats passing attack will prove to be too multi-faceted for the Texans. If the Texans do catch on to the Pats passing attack however, Bill Belichick can always dial up his new-found weapon, one that he hasn’t possessed since the team’s last Super Bowl victory; A running game. Come February, expect Tom Brady to skip another pro bowl on his way to losing yet another Super Bowl.
The difference maker this year is out of the Pats’ control, however. The conference is weaker as a whole, with the exception of the Texans. The Ravens are weaker on defense and Flacco seems to not have taken any major steps forward, the Bengals have regressed, the Steelers’ defense is another year older (Polamalu has yet to string healthy games together), so the only real threat is the Texans. I believe the Texans do not match up well with the Patriots, and you will all see why when they meet in week 14. The best way to defeat the Patriots is with an explosive passing attack, which the Texans do not possess, or by knocking down Brady, which is Watt’s specialty, but the Hoodie will game plan around him (the Giants have 5 legitimate pass rushing threats, more than Houston). The Texans run, run, then play-action. That is enough to fool some teams with weaker linebackers and coaching (Buffalo Bills anyone?), but may not be enough against more elite teams (Texans lost to the Packers. By a lot.). The Texans have been magnificent on defense, mostly thanks to Watt swatting passes, but again, I fully expect the Patriots to game plan around him. The Pats passing attack will prove to be too multi-faceted for the Texans. If the Texans do catch on to the Pats passing attack however, Bill Belichick can always dial up his new-found weapon, one that he hasn’t possessed since the team’s last Super Bowl victory; A running game. Come February, expect Tom Brady to skip another pro bowl on his way to losing yet another Super Bowl.
5.) Matt Ryan will not win MVP.
At the midway point of the season, the general consensus is that Ryan is the MVP (there are some whispers about Manning or Rodgers). By the end of the season, the Falcons will be somewhere around 13-3 or 14-2 (no way they go undefeated in that tough NFC South). While that is a good enough record to earn Ryan the award, there will be one player in the league to surpass him in the MVP race…
At the midway point of the season, the general consensus is that Ryan is the MVP (there are some whispers about Manning or Rodgers). By the end of the season, the Falcons will be somewhere around 13-3 or 14-2 (no way they go undefeated in that tough NFC South). While that is a good enough record to earn Ryan the award, there will be one player in the league to surpass him in the MVP race…
6.) The player to beat out Ryan for MVP will not be named Aaron or
Peyton.
Good ‘Ol Noodle Arm has been having a tremendous season and will be a no-brainer for Comeback Player of the Year, and Aaron Rodgers is once again single-handedly willing the Packers to victories behind his golden arm. But again, as good as these guys have been playing, there will be things working against them:
Good ‘Ol Noodle Arm has been having a tremendous season and will be a no-brainer for Comeback Player of the Year, and Aaron Rodgers is once again single-handedly willing the Packers to victories behind his golden arm. But again, as good as these guys have been playing, there will be things working against them:
·
Aaron Rodgers won the MVP last year, and the NFL
has been funny about giving it to the same player in consecutive years despite back-to-back
dominant seasons.
·
Peyton Manning has won three MVP awards in his career, and his numbers this season won’t
compare to those he posted in his award-winning campaigns.
So who will win the award you ask?
7.) Andrew Luck will win the MVP.
These predictions are supposed to be bold! Don’t judge! With my defense being stated, I believe Andrew Luck will have done enough by the end of the season to will the Colts to the playoffs. That honestly should be enough to get the MVP by itself, but to be fair, we’ll include some statistics and information:
These predictions are supposed to be bold! Don’t judge! With my defense being stated, I believe Andrew Luck will have done enough by the end of the season to will the Colts to the playoffs. That honestly should be enough to get the MVP by itself, but to be fair, we’ll include some statistics and information:
o
Through 9 weeks Luck has thrown for 2,631 yards.
The same number through 8 weeks as the Noodle, and on pace for 4,677 which
would be a new rookie record, breaking the one Cam Newton set last season by over 600 yards.
o
Approaching 5,000 yards passing is absurd, even
in today’s pass happy game. To do it as a rookie is unheard of.
o
Luck has already set the single-game rookie
passing record, throwing for 433 yards last week.
o
Luck has single-handedly revived Reggie Wayne’s
career, as many thought he was nearing the end after last season (one in which
Curtis Painter was throwing him the ball).
o
Luck’s total QBR is 77.6 this season, better
than the likes of Rodgers, Eli, and Brees, and trailing only Peyton, Brady, and
Ryan.
o
Luck is a rookie. The rest of those guys are
seasoned vets and Super Bowl Champs (except for Ryan).
Overall, Luck has far less talent
around him than Matt Ryan and is doing a phenomenal job with what he has.
The most important part of this argument however, is that the Colts finished with the worst record in the league last season. To lead a team from a first overall pick to a first round playoff matchup is unfathomable for any quarterback. It is even more unfathomable for a rookie quarterback. With head coach Chuck Pagano battling leukemia, even more pressure is on Luck’s shoulders to lead this team. Simply getting the Colts into the playoffs would be good enough for the MVP in my eyes. A playoff victory would just be icing on the cake. Sorry Matt Ryan, maybe next year.
The most important part of this argument however, is that the Colts finished with the worst record in the league last season. To lead a team from a first overall pick to a first round playoff matchup is unfathomable for any quarterback. It is even more unfathomable for a rookie quarterback. With head coach Chuck Pagano battling leukemia, even more pressure is on Luck’s shoulders to lead this team. Simply getting the Colts into the playoffs would be good enough for the MVP in my eyes. A playoff victory would just be icing on the cake. Sorry Matt Ryan, maybe next year.
8.) Andy Reid, Jason Garrett, and Chan Gailey will not finish the
season as their respective teams head coach.
All three teams have a common theme; failed expectations. Each of these teams has seemingly improved since last year, and all were expected to contend for the playoffs. Each has had their own individual problems however, and the coaches seem to be the next ones out the door.
In Dallas, Jason Garrett is basically asking Jerry Jones to fire him. The Princeton grad constantly runs out an immensely talented, undisciplined, and underachieving team. The three adjectives should not go together, and Garrett’s inability to control his team should have him out of Dallas quickly. I expect him to be the first to be fired.
Garrett’s EDT (Estimated Date of Termination): November 12, if the Boys lose convincingly against division rival Philadelphia.
Speaking of Philadelphia, Andy Reid has been on the hot seat since the start of the 2011 season. After Vince Young’s talk of a Dream Team, the Eagles had a horrendous start, effectively ending their season by week 8. Much of the blame was placed on Juan Castillo, offensive line coach – turned defensive coordinator (makes sense right?) but the Eagles finished the season strongly, which may have saved Reid’s job coming into this season. The Eagles once again had a strong offseason; picking up DeMeco Ryans to shore up their linebacking corps, yet this year the problem is the offensive line and Michael Vick, who has looked completely inept when not lying on the ground under defenders. Reid has more hope than Garrett does to keep his job, but he will need to win now and most likely make the playoffs to do so. This may be possible, but he needs to find a way to keep Vick upright.
Reid’s EDT: December 31st. Happy New Year! You’re unemployed. This is exactly what I expect Eagles’ GM Howie Roseman to tell Andy Reid after he finds a way to lose their week 17 matchup with the Giants (most likely by botching timeouts late) to miss the playoffs.
Chan Gailey is the most interesting case out of the three, as he has the GM that may just be dumb enough to keep him around. With the talent the Bills have on both sides of the ball, there is no excuse to not be at least 4-4 at this point in the season. Looking back at the first half, the Bills have lost three very winnable games (Jets, Patriots, Titans), mainly because of Gailey and his undying trust in the anemic Ryan Fitzpatrick, his mishandling of the extremely talented C.J. Spiller, and his ignorance on the subject of, well, the Bills’ defense. Buddy Nix seems committed to losing however, so I fear that Gailey’s job may be safe unless Nix is also Nixed (see what I did there?).
Gailey’s EDT: January 1st. If Ralph Wilson is as involved with the team as Russ Brandon says he is, then Ralph will to the right thing for the team and fire Nix along with Gailey. This will happen the day after black Monday however (Black Monday referring to the day after NFL week 17 on which most firings of coaches occur), because Wilson is extremely old and old people just move slower than the rest of us.
All three teams have a common theme; failed expectations. Each of these teams has seemingly improved since last year, and all were expected to contend for the playoffs. Each has had their own individual problems however, and the coaches seem to be the next ones out the door.
In Dallas, Jason Garrett is basically asking Jerry Jones to fire him. The Princeton grad constantly runs out an immensely talented, undisciplined, and underachieving team. The three adjectives should not go together, and Garrett’s inability to control his team should have him out of Dallas quickly. I expect him to be the first to be fired.
Garrett’s EDT (Estimated Date of Termination): November 12, if the Boys lose convincingly against division rival Philadelphia.
Speaking of Philadelphia, Andy Reid has been on the hot seat since the start of the 2011 season. After Vince Young’s talk of a Dream Team, the Eagles had a horrendous start, effectively ending their season by week 8. Much of the blame was placed on Juan Castillo, offensive line coach – turned defensive coordinator (makes sense right?) but the Eagles finished the season strongly, which may have saved Reid’s job coming into this season. The Eagles once again had a strong offseason; picking up DeMeco Ryans to shore up their linebacking corps, yet this year the problem is the offensive line and Michael Vick, who has looked completely inept when not lying on the ground under defenders. Reid has more hope than Garrett does to keep his job, but he will need to win now and most likely make the playoffs to do so. This may be possible, but he needs to find a way to keep Vick upright.
Reid’s EDT: December 31st. Happy New Year! You’re unemployed. This is exactly what I expect Eagles’ GM Howie Roseman to tell Andy Reid after he finds a way to lose their week 17 matchup with the Giants (most likely by botching timeouts late) to miss the playoffs.
Chan Gailey is the most interesting case out of the three, as he has the GM that may just be dumb enough to keep him around. With the talent the Bills have on both sides of the ball, there is no excuse to not be at least 4-4 at this point in the season. Looking back at the first half, the Bills have lost three very winnable games (Jets, Patriots, Titans), mainly because of Gailey and his undying trust in the anemic Ryan Fitzpatrick, his mishandling of the extremely talented C.J. Spiller, and his ignorance on the subject of, well, the Bills’ defense. Buddy Nix seems committed to losing however, so I fear that Gailey’s job may be safe unless Nix is also Nixed (see what I did there?).
Gailey’s EDT: January 1st. If Ralph Wilson is as involved with the team as Russ Brandon says he is, then Ralph will to the right thing for the team and fire Nix along with Gailey. This will happen the day after black Monday however (Black Monday referring to the day after NFL week 17 on which most firings of coaches occur), because Wilson is extremely old and old people just move slower than the rest of us.
9.) Tom Brady will once again throw for over 5,000 yards.
Brady already has 2,408 yards passing, and his second half is comprised of several below-average pass defenses. With the Patriots likely to explode and string together 4 or 5 wins any week now, Brady is sure to have some big games. After last season, we will start seeing 5,000-yard seasons with more regularity, and also I love Tom Brady.
Brady already has 2,408 yards passing, and his second half is comprised of several below-average pass defenses. With the Patriots likely to explode and string together 4 or 5 wins any week now, Brady is sure to have some big games. After last season, we will start seeing 5,000-yard seasons with more regularity, and also I love Tom Brady.
10. The Buffalo Bills will finish with 5 or 6 wins and have yet
another top-10 draft pick.
For my obligatory prediction for the Bills (the short bit on Gailey doesn’t count), I chose to predict the end of their inevitably horrible and disappointing season. The Bills realistically have 4 to 5 winnable games remaining, which means they might win 2 of them. That’s just how the Bills go about things. Here’s how the rest of the season will shake out on 1 Bills Drive:
For my obligatory prediction for the Bills (the short bit on Gailey doesn’t count), I chose to predict the end of their inevitably horrible and disappointing season. The Bills realistically have 4 to 5 winnable games remaining, which means they might win 2 of them. That’s just how the Bills go about things. Here’s how the rest of the season will shake out on 1 Bills Drive:
o
Week 10: The Bills WILL get trounced by the
Patriots coming off a bye in Foxboro. This will be the ever-so-common season in
which the Bills have two blowout losses to the Patsies (I was half-wrong on this one, since we still lost).
o
Week 11: On 3 days rest for both teams, the
Bills should gut out a victory at home in the cold against the Dolphins (as
long as Gailey isn’t baited into throwing the ball 40 times by the Dolphins
high-ranked rush defense, more to come later).
o
Week 12: At Indianapolis. Before the season this
was an automatic win. Now I see no chance unless Tarvaris Jackson is somehow
dressing for games by then.
o
Week 13: Home vs. Jacksonville. A win is fully
expected. A loss would be a blessing in disguise. We would be the laughingstock
of the league with a loss (but we might be already), but it would also all but
guarantee Gailey would be fired the next day.
o
Week 14: St. Louis is sneaky-dangerous (they tied the 49ers this week, a team that blew the Bills away). They should win
this game as long as it’s not snowing, but that’s no guarantee.
o
Week 15: Seattle isn’t great on the road, but it
will still feel like a home game for them in the dome (this is the now-infamous
annual Toronto game). Bills lose (what’s new).
o
Week 16: Miami will likely still be in
contention at this point, making them much more likely to do something the
Bills will not; try.
o
Week 17: If Tebow time isn’t in full swing by
this time, then the world will have actually ended 9 days prior. But this time
he’s on the Jets so the Bills will find a way to lose.
As these predictions stand, the
Bills would be looking at a 5-11 record, and one of the more disappointing
seasons in recent memory, which is especially awful because every season is
disappointing for this team. A top 10, maybe even top 5-draft pick is imminent,
and a franchise QB will almost certainly be selected. 6 months from now, the
Bills will have a new look front office, coaching staff, and quarterback. Most
importantly though, the Bills will have a new hope.
I hope you’ve enjoyed my
predictions, and I hope you remember you saw them here first!
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Tom Brady is the most overrated QB in the League!!
Yes you have seen it right, I believe Tom Brady is the most overrated QB in the entire NFL. First off im sure I have your attention but, by no means am I saying he is not a good QB he is just not as good as everybody thinks he is. Im going to start with the obvious in that he plays the Buffalo Bills twice a year so that is going to boost anybody stats since we have been unwatchable for the past ten years. Also the fact that Matt Cassel led the Patriots team to a 11-5 shows just how good they are without Brady. I believe it is the system that Bill Belichick as to why the team is so successful. The offensive line is most likely the best in the league if not the minimum is top 3, his wide reciever core is unreal the fact that everybody complains they dont have enough help there makes me sick. You mean to tell me 2 of the top 5 tight ends and Wes Welker alone are not good targets to throw to? Now you add Brandon Lloyd and the always reliable Branch id say in all they have the best throwing threat in the league easily. If you had to chose between two solid wide outs versus two solid tight ends, your always going to pick tight ends due to the fact they are larger and more valuable in the red zone. Going back to the line, doesnt it always seem like Tom Brady has all day to throw the ball? that given all the time he has even the best cornerbacks in the league could be put on one team and I will guarentee that they could not cover this core for more than 5 seconds each pass. How about this, when is the last time you noticed a defender always around this core. Normally when Tom Brady throws the ball the closest defender is 5 yards away. They are always open and given all the time Brady is given he is able to find the WIDE OPEN reciever. Any QB can throw to a wide open reciever it is not that hard. If by some chance he does throw into coverage it is to absolute freaks such as Gronk and Hernandez who due to their size and athletic ability save Brady with spectacular catches.
Going back on the previous points in that the line is unreal and Matt Cassel took this team to a 11-5 year show the fact that Brady is not all that needed. In fact look how awful Cassel is doing now with a new team and in fact he is even fighting for his job. As for the line, the games in which Brady does not do well he is under pressure and only getting about 3-4 seconds to throw. (still pretty good) FYI Tom Brady has the least knockdowns (82) in the past 5 years the second closest is Aaron Rogers (113) thats a pretty big difference if you ask me. His leadership in those games consist of yelling at his line and recievers because he is not doing well. I do not like him as a leader because when things go wrong he has yelled at his coordinator to the fact where he ignored him like a little kid not getting his way. The fact he was a 6th round draft pick goes to show he did not have that much potential and did not appeal to teams. But how many players do we see drafted in late rounds become study for the Pats? its a system thing and Brady is just one of those system players. I believe you can place any other Qb in his place and they will put up similar numbers because given time everything is easier. If Brady is on the bills his numbers would be like Tony Romos and thats above average but yet not nearly the player he is now. Next time you watch Brady in action watch the recievers when they catch the ball and how far open they are and all the time he has to throw the ball. Again he is good not great in my eyes.
Going back on the previous points in that the line is unreal and Matt Cassel took this team to a 11-5 year show the fact that Brady is not all that needed. In fact look how awful Cassel is doing now with a new team and in fact he is even fighting for his job. As for the line, the games in which Brady does not do well he is under pressure and only getting about 3-4 seconds to throw. (still pretty good) FYI Tom Brady has the least knockdowns (82) in the past 5 years the second closest is Aaron Rogers (113) thats a pretty big difference if you ask me. His leadership in those games consist of yelling at his line and recievers because he is not doing well. I do not like him as a leader because when things go wrong he has yelled at his coordinator to the fact where he ignored him like a little kid not getting his way. The fact he was a 6th round draft pick goes to show he did not have that much potential and did not appeal to teams. But how many players do we see drafted in late rounds become study for the Pats? its a system thing and Brady is just one of those system players. I believe you can place any other Qb in his place and they will put up similar numbers because given time everything is easier. If Brady is on the bills his numbers would be like Tony Romos and thats above average but yet not nearly the player he is now. Next time you watch Brady in action watch the recievers when they catch the ball and how far open they are and all the time he has to throw the ball. Again he is good not great in my eyes.
College Football Week 11 Computer Rankings
It was a very eventful and entertaining day of football yesterday, and it shook up the standings quite a bit. After putting in all of the week's results, the kinks in my computer rankings seem to have sorted themselves out (ie Cincy way too high and Texas way too low), providing a seemingly very accurate and unbiased evaluation of all of the teams. We have a new #1 this week, and it is.........
1. Oregon 2.893
2. Kansas St. 2.862
3. Alabama 2.836
4. Notre Dame 2.800
5. Florida 2.753
6. Texas A&M 2.715
7. Florida St. 2.698
8. LSU 2.666
9. Georgia 2.644
10. Oklahoma 2.607
11. Nebraska 2.589
12. Clemson 2.588
13. South Carolina 2.569
14. Stanford 2.567
15. Oregon St. 2.474
16. Ohio St. 2.452
17. Oklahoma St. 2.446
18. Mississippi St. 2.440
19. Texas 2.432
20. Michigan 2.430
21. UCLA 2.417
22. Louisiana Tech 2.407
23. Rutgers 2.405
24. Cincinnati 2.401
25. San Jose St. 2.397
1. Oregon 2.893
2. Kansas St. 2.862
3. Alabama 2.836
4. Notre Dame 2.800
5. Florida 2.753
6. Texas A&M 2.715
7. Florida St. 2.698
8. LSU 2.666
9. Georgia 2.644
10. Oklahoma 2.607
11. Nebraska 2.589
12. Clemson 2.588
13. South Carolina 2.569
14. Stanford 2.567
15. Oregon St. 2.474
16. Ohio St. 2.452
17. Oklahoma St. 2.446
18. Mississippi St. 2.440
19. Texas 2.432
20. Michigan 2.430
21. UCLA 2.417
22. Louisiana Tech 2.407
23. Rutgers 2.405
24. Cincinnati 2.401
25. San Jose St. 2.397
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Week 11 College Football Live Blog
Hello College Football Fans, I'll be flipping through all of the action for most of the day, and don't feel like annoying people with excessive sports tweeting, so look here for updates on every game. Feel free to comment yourself!
Friday, November 9, 2012
Week 11 College Football Predictions
Apart from missing on a bunch of the teams in the lower part of the rankings, I had a pretty decent week last week, going 20-5. We have some very entertaining games lined up this week, let's see how it goes. My new computer rankings are shown under the scores.
BCS Ranked Teams
(1) Alabama 27, (15) Texas A&M 23
CPU: 1 vs. 8
(2) Kansas St. 41, TCU 24
CPU: 4 vs. 59
(3) Oregon 59, California 16
CPU: 2 vs. 85
(4) Notre Dame 30, Boston College 9
CPU: 3 vs. 105
(5) Georgia 31, Auburn 20
CPU: 9 vs. 92
(6) Florida 41, La-Lafayette 6
CPU: 5 vs. 64
(7) LSU 24, (21) Mississippi St. 17
CPU: 10 vs. 24
(8) South Carolina 34, Arkansas 24
CPU: 12 vs. 70
Syracuse 30, (9) Louisville 28
CPU: 73 vs. 19
(11) Oregon St 23, (14) Stanford 20
CPU: 11 vs. 13
(12) Oklahoma 63, Baylor 34
CPU: 7 vs. 68
(13) Clemson 48, Maryland 23
CPU: 17 vs. 98
Penn St. 27, (16) Nebraska 21
CPU: 46 vs. 15
(17) Texas 33, Iowa St. 24
CPU: 41 vs. 50
(18) UCLA 45, Washington St. 24
CPU: 18 vs. 109
(19) USC 37, Arizona St. 31
CPU: 31 vs. 45
(20) Louisiana Tech 52, Texas St. 20
CPU: 23 vs. 95
(22) Texas Tech 59, Kansas 13
CPU: 29 vs. 116
(23) Rutgers 37, Army 16
CPU: 21 vs. 100
Michigan 34, (24) Northwestern 20
CPU: 40 vs. 36
Teams in my Computer Rankings
Cincinnati 41, Temple 20
CPU: 14 vs. 84
San Jose St. 55, New Mexico St. 17
CPU: 22 vs. 125
Oklahoma St. 59, West Virginia 52
CPU: 25 vs. 37
Other Games of Note
Indiana 27, Wisconsin 25
CPU: 76 vs. 47
Tennessee 38, Missouri 31
CPU: 62 vs. 58
North Carolina 44, Georgia Tech 33
CPU: 33 vs. 79
NC St. 30, Wake Forest 27
CPU: 77 vs. 78
Vanderbilt 31, Ole Miss 30
CPU: 54 vs. 57
BCS Ranked Teams
(1) Alabama 27, (15) Texas A&M 23
CPU: 1 vs. 8
(2) Kansas St. 41, TCU 24
CPU: 4 vs. 59
(3) Oregon 59, California 16
CPU: 2 vs. 85
(4) Notre Dame 30, Boston College 9
CPU: 3 vs. 105
(5) Georgia 31, Auburn 20
CPU: 9 vs. 92
(6) Florida 41, La-Lafayette 6
CPU: 5 vs. 64
(7) LSU 24, (21) Mississippi St. 17
CPU: 10 vs. 24
(8) South Carolina 34, Arkansas 24
CPU: 12 vs. 70
Syracuse 30, (9) Louisville 28
CPU: 73 vs. 19
(11) Oregon St 23, (14) Stanford 20
CPU: 11 vs. 13
(12) Oklahoma 63, Baylor 34
CPU: 7 vs. 68
(13) Clemson 48, Maryland 23
CPU: 17 vs. 98
Penn St. 27, (16) Nebraska 21
CPU: 46 vs. 15
(17) Texas 33, Iowa St. 24
CPU: 41 vs. 50
(18) UCLA 45, Washington St. 24
CPU: 18 vs. 109
(19) USC 37, Arizona St. 31
CPU: 31 vs. 45
(20) Louisiana Tech 52, Texas St. 20
CPU: 23 vs. 95
(22) Texas Tech 59, Kansas 13
CPU: 29 vs. 116
(23) Rutgers 37, Army 16
CPU: 21 vs. 100
Michigan 34, (24) Northwestern 20
CPU: 40 vs. 36
Teams in my Computer Rankings
Cincinnati 41, Temple 20
CPU: 14 vs. 84
San Jose St. 55, New Mexico St. 17
CPU: 22 vs. 125
Oklahoma St. 59, West Virginia 52
CPU: 25 vs. 37
Other Games of Note
Indiana 27, Wisconsin 25
CPU: 76 vs. 47
Tennessee 38, Missouri 31
CPU: 62 vs. 58
North Carolina 44, Georgia Tech 33
CPU: 33 vs. 79
NC St. 30, Wake Forest 27
CPU: 77 vs. 78
Vanderbilt 31, Ole Miss 30
CPU: 54 vs. 57
Alex's College Football Computer Rankings
Hello everyone, sorry I haven't posted in a while, I've spent much of the week trying to come up with a new computer ranking system for College Football. The unique part is that this ranking system factors in margin of victory, something that BCS computers are not allowed to do. I know this is controversial, as teams can rack up points, but the fact is, top teams should be able to blow certain teams out, and should not be blown out themselves (ie. Georgia's blowout loss to South Carolina or Notre Dame's escape against Pitt). It is not a huge factor, but is one of four determinants in my system.
Number 1: Winning Percentage
This should go without saying, and is the most obvious indicator of a team's success. Teams' records in determining their winning percentages have been modified NOT to include games against FCS schools.
Number 2: Adjusted Average Margin of Victory
To put Margin of Victory on a similar scale as winning percentage, a teams average margin of victory (or defeat) is divided by 100 and then added to (or subtracted from) .5. For example, Florida State's average margin of victory is 32.9, so divided by 100 is .329, and added to .5 is .829. This statistic does include games against FCS opponents, because although I do not believe they are important enough to count in a team's record, it should not go completely unnoticed if a team destroys an FCS school, and should not go completely unpunished if they lose.
Number 3: Adjusted Opponents' Winning Percentage
This is a pretty straightforward way of determining strength of schedule, adding up all of a team's opponents' wins and losses, and taking out games played against that team. For example Oregon would take 8 away from their opponents' loss total, as those 8 losses came to Oregon.
Number 4: Opponents' Adjusted Opponents' Winning Percentage
Confused yet? This measure is to account for any misleading from the previous statistic. For example, in the above stat, playing a 6-2 Texas A&M would count the same as playing a 6-2 Middle Tennessee. This stat also takes Texas A&M's schedule strength into account (or Middle Tennessee's), and rewards the team accordingly.
Got it?
Now this system is not flawless, as no computer ranking ever will be. For instance Cincinnati is ranked way too high due to the small sample size as they've only played 6 FBS teams. As the sample size increases, this ship will right itself.
*Note: this does not include yesterday's games.
Here you go!
1. Alabama 2.947
2. Oregon 2.897
3. Notre Dame 2.867
4. Kansas St. 2.768
5. Florida 2.736
6. Florida St. 2.728
7. Oklahoma 2.671
8. Texas A&M 2.653
9. Georgia 2.619
10. LSU 2.595
11. Oregon St. 2.569
12. South Carolina 2.529
13. Stanford 2.521
14. Cincinnati? 2.477
15. Nebraska 2.463
16. Ohio St. 2.462
17. Clemson 2.461
18. UCLA 2.458
19. Louisville 2.426
20. Northern Illinois 2.409
21. Rutgers 2.401
22. San Jose St. 2.384
23. Louisiana Tech 2.384
24. Mississippi St. 2.380
25. Oklahoma St. 2.351
Number 1: Winning Percentage
This should go without saying, and is the most obvious indicator of a team's success. Teams' records in determining their winning percentages have been modified NOT to include games against FCS schools.
Number 2: Adjusted Average Margin of Victory
To put Margin of Victory on a similar scale as winning percentage, a teams average margin of victory (or defeat) is divided by 100 and then added to (or subtracted from) .5. For example, Florida State's average margin of victory is 32.9, so divided by 100 is .329, and added to .5 is .829. This statistic does include games against FCS opponents, because although I do not believe they are important enough to count in a team's record, it should not go completely unnoticed if a team destroys an FCS school, and should not go completely unpunished if they lose.
Number 3: Adjusted Opponents' Winning Percentage
This is a pretty straightforward way of determining strength of schedule, adding up all of a team's opponents' wins and losses, and taking out games played against that team. For example Oregon would take 8 away from their opponents' loss total, as those 8 losses came to Oregon.
Number 4: Opponents' Adjusted Opponents' Winning Percentage
Confused yet? This measure is to account for any misleading from the previous statistic. For example, in the above stat, playing a 6-2 Texas A&M would count the same as playing a 6-2 Middle Tennessee. This stat also takes Texas A&M's schedule strength into account (or Middle Tennessee's), and rewards the team accordingly.
Got it?
Now this system is not flawless, as no computer ranking ever will be. For instance Cincinnati is ranked way too high due to the small sample size as they've only played 6 FBS teams. As the sample size increases, this ship will right itself.
*Note: this does not include yesterday's games.
Here you go!
1. Alabama 2.947
2. Oregon 2.897
3. Notre Dame 2.867
4. Kansas St. 2.768
5. Florida 2.736
6. Florida St. 2.728
7. Oklahoma 2.671
8. Texas A&M 2.653
9. Georgia 2.619
10. LSU 2.595
11. Oregon St. 2.569
12. South Carolina 2.529
13. Stanford 2.521
14. Cincinnati? 2.477
15. Nebraska 2.463
16. Ohio St. 2.462
17. Clemson 2.461
18. UCLA 2.458
19. Louisville 2.426
20. Northern Illinois 2.409
21. Rutgers 2.401
22. San Jose St. 2.384
23. Louisiana Tech 2.384
24. Mississippi St. 2.380
25. Oklahoma St. 2.351
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Sean's Week 10 NFL Predictions
Week 10 definitely has some good match ups and tough decisions. It should be an entertaining week, especially with the divisional games involved. Here are my picks for week 10:
Coming off a crazy game against the Colts, the Dolphins will be hungry. The Titans defense is just not good at all, and their offense is not much better. The Dolphins have a solid rush defense waiting for Chris Johnson, and an offense that has produced this year with major help from Reggie Bush.
Miami 23-16
X Factor: Reggie Bush
Prediction: I think Reggie will have a field day with this defense. 80 yards rushing and 75 receiving, with 2 touchdowns.
After Bills fans believed their team actually drastically improved over the offseason, it obviously has not been the case. This game has the same feeling as every other Bills vs. Pats game in the last decade; a great optimistic hope to win against the Patriots with the likelihood of begging for mercy from Belichick in the second half. The defense hasn't stopped any other offenses this season, so I do not expect them to stop Brady this time around. In the last two meetings, New England has put up a combined 101 points. Expect another 45. Patriots 45-20
X Factor: Tom Brady
Prediction: Surprise, surprise. Tom Brady throws for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns.
This is really a simple pick for me. The Raiders already have one of the worst rushing attacks in all of football. Darren McFadden has struggled in the zone scheme all year, and now he's out with a sprained ankle, along with his backup Mike Goodson. Facing the injured but still talented Ravens defense, giving them a one sided offensive attack is not a recipe for success. Oh and even the "Polish Cannon" Sebastian Janikowski has been hurting, but is still expected to play. Things are not looking too good for the Raiders, especially when Janikowski is showing up on injury reports. Ravens 31-9
X Factor: Carson Palmer
Prediction: Picking Palmer is not necessarily for a good game. Without McFadden and Goodson, I believe Carson tries to carry the team to victory. Throws 3 interceptions in a loss.
With Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense starting to click, it's not looking too good for opposing defenses. The Panthers are hurt on defense in the first place. Looking at the rest of the Broncos schedule, 11-5 is really not out of reach for this team. I believe the Chargers and Ravens will make the most competitive games for Denver the rest of the season. And we all know what happened in the first San Diego/Denver matchup (Chargers blew a 24-0 halftime lead). Unless Cam Newton can help an outburst for the Panthers offense, I don't see a Carolina win. Broncos 31-17
X Factor: Elvis Dumervil & Von Miller
Prediction: These two elite pass rushers will contain Cam Newton most of the day. They combine for 3 sacks.
After letting the Steelers come into their place and beat them last week, I expect the Giants to come out strong against the Bengals. New York is still one of the elite teams in the league right now. The Bengals offense has not been great this year but they do have good pieces in place. Although I have the Giants winning, I see it being a close game. Giants 27-24
X Factor: AJ Green
Prediction: The incredible second year receiver has over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns receiving on the day.
This game can prove to be a thriller as well. Both offenses have shown to be capable of break out performances this season. Adrian Peterson has been a stud this year after tearing his ACL last year, which has been huge for the Vikings. Peterson's success this season would be questioned before the start of the year coming off the knee injury, and no one expected the Vikings to have five wins to this point. Both teams need this game bad. Although Percy Harvin may not be available this game, I can still see both teams putting up big points. Lions 35-31
X Factor: Matt Stafford
Prediction: After inconsistencies this season, Matt Stafford has a big game with 300 yards passing and 3 touchdowns.
With the 8-0 Falcons going into the Superdome in New Orleans, i'm going upset. The Saints are slowly starting to play with even better rhythm on offense. In the game against the Eagles, all three running backs ran the ball effectively which helps out Drew Brees (as if he needs it). The Saints defense is still a joke, and I do believe the Falcons will put up good numbers on offense. However, it is a hostile environment in the Superdome and I have a hunch that the Saints will get a big turnover late in the game. Saints 38-35
X Factor: Jabari Greer
Prediction: There will obviously be huge numbers put up by each offense. Jabari Greer can be a difference maker for a bad Saints defense. 1 interception late in the game.
Big time home field advantage for the Seahawks in this matchup. They have not lost any games at home this season (although they should have lost to the Packers). The Jets offense is inconsistent enough without the most hostile crowd in the league screaming in their ears. The Seahawks defense has a big day. Seahawks 21-6
X Factor: Chris Clemons
Prediction: Clemons is one of the better pass rushers in the league and deserves much more respect. He makes Mark Sanchez uncomfortable in this game with 2 sacks.
Ah, a big time NFC East game is always fun to watch. Each team comes into the game with a 3-5 record. Both teams have done much worse than expected and pressure is on personnel of both sides. A loss in this game creates a much steeper slope to climb in hopes of catching the Giants. After watching the Saints/Eagles game, Michael Vick does not have a shot to even process what is in front of him before being annihilated. The Eagles line causes them another game here. Cowboys 27-13
X Factor: DeMarcus Ware
Prediction: With the way the Eagles line has played, DeMarcus Ware comes up with 3 sacks and one forced fumble.
Honestly, I don't see this game coming close especially with it being in San Francisco. The Rams best receiver, Danny Amendola is still questionable. This offense just does not have the talent against the 49ers defense. 49ers 27-10
X Factor: Aldon Smith
Prediction: Smith makes it harder than it will already be on Bradford. 2 sacks.
I can not wait to watch this game, and it is one of the hardest picks i've made all year. Both teams come into the game 7-1. The Bears have home field advantage and a defense that takes the ball away at will. Charles Tillman who has played out of his mind and had 4 forced fumbles last week, was feared to miss this game do to his daughter's birth. However, it looks like he will be on the field Sunday, so expect to see him on Andre Johnson. The Texans defense is also legit and has the defensive player of the year to this point, JJ Watt. When Jay Cutler has a bad game, it's usually very bad. Interceptions can pile up real fast if JJ Watt is not accounted for. If the Bears do a good job picking up the pass rush, I believe they will pull this game off. The Texans are very good with the play action, but I believe the Bears defense is discipline enough and can rely on their corners to lock down the Texan's receivers.
Bears 26-23
X Factor: JJ Watt
Prediction: Watt will have an impact on this game, especially with the Bears offensive line being inconsistent at times. Containing him to one sack would be a success. This man can single handedly stop this Bears offense if he frustrates Cutler early. I predict 2 sacks.
This is another game that should not be much competition. The Chiefs have talent on both sides of the ball, but they have not produced much at all this season. Matt Cassel will start for the Chiefs as Brady Quinn has a concussion. But if the Chiefs plan on winning, Jamaal Charles needs to have a big time performance. Big Ben and the Steelers should have their way with this team. Steelers 34-13
X Factor: James Harrison
Prediction: Harrison had a slow start this season coming off an injury. He gets back to his old ways in this game with 2 sacks on Matt Cassel.
These are just a quick look at my thoughts this week. Check back next week to see the results!!
My record from last week: 11-3
Season record: 82-50
Colts @ Jaguars
After coming off a 31-14 whooping to the Lions, I don't expect things to look much better for the Jaguars this week. The highly motivated Colts are coming into town. Andrew Luck is still getting used to NFL crowds on the road, and as expected, his stats fare worse in other stadiums away from Lucas Oil Stadium. Although the Colts had been written off as a non-contender from the start of the season, they have a respectable 5-3 record as of now. I can see them improving to six wins in this trip to Jacksonville, who is 0-4 at home this year. Colts 27-16
X Factor: Reggie Wayne
Prediction: People thought it was crazy to keep Reggie after dumping half of their team. Andrew Luck could not have been happier to have a top notch proven receiver to throw the ball to in his rookie campaign. I believe Reggie will continue a strong season with double digit receptions.
Chargers @ Buccaneers
Both teams in this game have top notch rush defenses. The Buccaneers however, have the worst pass defense in the league. Doug Martin has been sensational as a rookie, and put on a show last week with 251 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns. This came after the Bucs lost their starting left guard, Carl Nicks to a toe injury that put him on injured reserve. No one expected a game like that from the rookie out of Boise, but he was playing in front of his home city in Oakland, which probably gave a big motivation factor. Even though Philip Rivers has been inconsistent this season, I would expect that he can pick apart the worst pass defense in the league, even with hurting receivers. This is a tough one to pick, especially because Josh Freeman has thrown the ball well this season. Chargers 28-23
X Factor: Philip Rivers
Prediction: I believe this game rides on Rivers' shoulders. If he doesn't produce, then Josh Freeman and Doug Martin will find a way to lead the Bucs to victory. Rivers throws 3 touchdown passes on the day.
Titans @ Dolphins
Coming off a crazy game against the Colts, the Dolphins will be hungry. The Titans defense is just not good at all, and their offense is not much better. The Dolphins have a solid rush defense waiting for Chris Johnson, and an offense that has produced this year with major help from Reggie Bush.
Miami 23-16
X Factor: Reggie Bush
Prediction: I think Reggie will have a field day with this defense. 80 yards rushing and 75 receiving, with 2 touchdowns.
Bills @ Patriots
After Bills fans believed their team actually drastically improved over the offseason, it obviously has not been the case. This game has the same feeling as every other Bills vs. Pats game in the last decade; a great optimistic hope to win against the Patriots with the likelihood of begging for mercy from Belichick in the second half. The defense hasn't stopped any other offenses this season, so I do not expect them to stop Brady this time around. In the last two meetings, New England has put up a combined 101 points. Expect another 45. Patriots 45-20
X Factor: Tom Brady
Prediction: Surprise, surprise. Tom Brady throws for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Raiders @ Ravens
This is really a simple pick for me. The Raiders already have one of the worst rushing attacks in all of football. Darren McFadden has struggled in the zone scheme all year, and now he's out with a sprained ankle, along with his backup Mike Goodson. Facing the injured but still talented Ravens defense, giving them a one sided offensive attack is not a recipe for success. Oh and even the "Polish Cannon" Sebastian Janikowski has been hurting, but is still expected to play. Things are not looking too good for the Raiders, especially when Janikowski is showing up on injury reports. Ravens 31-9
X Factor: Carson Palmer
Prediction: Picking Palmer is not necessarily for a good game. Without McFadden and Goodson, I believe Carson tries to carry the team to victory. Throws 3 interceptions in a loss.
Broncos @ Panthers
With Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense starting to click, it's not looking too good for opposing defenses. The Panthers are hurt on defense in the first place. Looking at the rest of the Broncos schedule, 11-5 is really not out of reach for this team. I believe the Chargers and Ravens will make the most competitive games for Denver the rest of the season. And we all know what happened in the first San Diego/Denver matchup (Chargers blew a 24-0 halftime lead). Unless Cam Newton can help an outburst for the Panthers offense, I don't see a Carolina win. Broncos 31-17
X Factor: Elvis Dumervil & Von Miller
Prediction: These two elite pass rushers will contain Cam Newton most of the day. They combine for 3 sacks.
Giants @ Bengals
After letting the Steelers come into their place and beat them last week, I expect the Giants to come out strong against the Bengals. New York is still one of the elite teams in the league right now. The Bengals offense has not been great this year but they do have good pieces in place. Although I have the Giants winning, I see it being a close game. Giants 27-24
X Factor: AJ Green
Prediction: The incredible second year receiver has over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns receiving on the day.
Lions @ Vikings
This game can prove to be a thriller as well. Both offenses have shown to be capable of break out performances this season. Adrian Peterson has been a stud this year after tearing his ACL last year, which has been huge for the Vikings. Peterson's success this season would be questioned before the start of the year coming off the knee injury, and no one expected the Vikings to have five wins to this point. Both teams need this game bad. Although Percy Harvin may not be available this game, I can still see both teams putting up big points. Lions 35-31
X Factor: Matt Stafford
Prediction: After inconsistencies this season, Matt Stafford has a big game with 300 yards passing and 3 touchdowns.
Falcons @ Saints
With the 8-0 Falcons going into the Superdome in New Orleans, i'm going upset. The Saints are slowly starting to play with even better rhythm on offense. In the game against the Eagles, all three running backs ran the ball effectively which helps out Drew Brees (as if he needs it). The Saints defense is still a joke, and I do believe the Falcons will put up good numbers on offense. However, it is a hostile environment in the Superdome and I have a hunch that the Saints will get a big turnover late in the game. Saints 38-35
X Factor: Jabari Greer
Prediction: There will obviously be huge numbers put up by each offense. Jabari Greer can be a difference maker for a bad Saints defense. 1 interception late in the game.
Jets @ Seahawks
Big time home field advantage for the Seahawks in this matchup. They have not lost any games at home this season (although they should have lost to the Packers). The Jets offense is inconsistent enough without the most hostile crowd in the league screaming in their ears. The Seahawks defense has a big day. Seahawks 21-6
X Factor: Chris Clemons
Prediction: Clemons is one of the better pass rushers in the league and deserves much more respect. He makes Mark Sanchez uncomfortable in this game with 2 sacks.
Cowboys @ Eagles
Ah, a big time NFC East game is always fun to watch. Each team comes into the game with a 3-5 record. Both teams have done much worse than expected and pressure is on personnel of both sides. A loss in this game creates a much steeper slope to climb in hopes of catching the Giants. After watching the Saints/Eagles game, Michael Vick does not have a shot to even process what is in front of him before being annihilated. The Eagles line causes them another game here. Cowboys 27-13
X Factor: DeMarcus Ware
Prediction: With the way the Eagles line has played, DeMarcus Ware comes up with 3 sacks and one forced fumble.
Rams @ 49ers
Honestly, I don't see this game coming close especially with it being in San Francisco. The Rams best receiver, Danny Amendola is still questionable. This offense just does not have the talent against the 49ers defense. 49ers 27-10
X Factor: Aldon Smith
Prediction: Smith makes it harder than it will already be on Bradford. 2 sacks.
Texans @ Bears
I can not wait to watch this game, and it is one of the hardest picks i've made all year. Both teams come into the game 7-1. The Bears have home field advantage and a defense that takes the ball away at will. Charles Tillman who has played out of his mind and had 4 forced fumbles last week, was feared to miss this game do to his daughter's birth. However, it looks like he will be on the field Sunday, so expect to see him on Andre Johnson. The Texans defense is also legit and has the defensive player of the year to this point, JJ Watt. When Jay Cutler has a bad game, it's usually very bad. Interceptions can pile up real fast if JJ Watt is not accounted for. If the Bears do a good job picking up the pass rush, I believe they will pull this game off. The Texans are very good with the play action, but I believe the Bears defense is discipline enough and can rely on their corners to lock down the Texan's receivers.
Bears 26-23
X Factor: JJ Watt
Prediction: Watt will have an impact on this game, especially with the Bears offensive line being inconsistent at times. Containing him to one sack would be a success. This man can single handedly stop this Bears offense if he frustrates Cutler early. I predict 2 sacks.
Chiefs @ Steelers
This is another game that should not be much competition. The Chiefs have talent on both sides of the ball, but they have not produced much at all this season. Matt Cassel will start for the Chiefs as Brady Quinn has a concussion. But if the Chiefs plan on winning, Jamaal Charles needs to have a big time performance. Big Ben and the Steelers should have their way with this team. Steelers 34-13
X Factor: James Harrison
Prediction: Harrison had a slow start this season coming off an injury. He gets back to his old ways in this game with 2 sacks on Matt Cassel.
These are just a quick look at my thoughts this week. Check back next week to see the results!!
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Alex's College Football predictions: Week 10
Though a week later than I had initially hoped, here is the debut of my weekly College Football picks. There were some close calls, and some upsets that I may have picked if the favorite were not at home. Unfortunately, as the BCS rankings, not mine, will actually matter at the end of the season (disappointing, right?), the rankings next to the team will be their BCS rank. Enjoy, and feel free to come back here Saturday to make fun of me for being wrong.
Ranked Teams
(1) Alabama 23, (5) LSU 9
I expect LSU to ride the adrenaline of playing in front of a rowdy home crowd to keep it interesting for the first half, but Alabama will put a few early drives together in the 3rd to take the fans out of it.
(2) Kansas St. 38, (24) Oklahoma St. 27
Were Oklahoma St. at home, this would be really interesting. Kansas St. will suffer a bit of a letdown after the past two weeks, but will have enough to pull out the W.
(3) Notre Dame 24, Pittsburgh 17
Another game that if the underdog were at home, could be a possible upset. Pitt is inconsistent, but Notre Dame may be overlooking them, resulting in a closer game than most expect.
(4) Oregon 52, (17) USC 24
As with LSU, USC will likely ride the home crowd to keep it close early, but Oregon's starters will be very hungry in the second half, a half that they have barely seen this year, and really open it up.
(6) Georgia 27, Ole Miss 16
Georgia is the epitome of inconsistency, and after a physically draining victory over Florida, will let Ole Miss hang around. In the end, the Rebels don't have enough firepower to make up a late deficit.
(7) Florida 34, Missouri 9
Be certain that Will Muschamp will have the Gators fired up after an awful loss to Georgia. Missouri got it's first SEC win last week, but Florida is no Kentucky.
(10) Louisville 45, Temple 30
Temple is reeling, but Louisville finds ways not to win comfortably. After the first two weeks, their biggest victory is 45-35 over Pitt. Expect a bit of separation by the end of this one, but be careful.
(11) Oregon State 30, Arizona St. 23
Handing the reins back to Cody Vaz after the surprising loss to Washington, the Beavers offense will be rejuvenated, and take down the Sun Devils who suffered a deflating loss to UCLA last week.
(12) Oklahoma 48, Iowa St. 13
Iowa St. is a respectable team, but the Sooners went crazy after their first loss, so I cannot imagine how much Stoops will have the team fired up after their second.
(13) Clemson 48, Duke 24
Duke will manage to put up a few points, as Clemson's defense is not at the same level as the Seminoles', but will have no answer for Tajh Boyd and the Tiger offense.
(14) Stanford 45, Colorado 9
Colorado has been resilient this year, but simply does not have the talent to compete with quality teams, as shown by the past two weeks against USC and Oregon. Expect the trend to continue.
(16) Texas A&M 34, (15) Mississippi St. 17
The Bulldogs were exposed in a major way last week, and while Texas A&M is not Alabama, they are still far better than any team Mississippi St. has beaten this year.
(18) Texas Tech 55, (23) Texas 30
Texas Tech will be out for blood after failing to show up against Kansas St., and come up against a vastly overrated Longhorns squad who barely squeaked out a win over Kansas (Kansas!).
(19) Boise St. 27, San Diego St. 13
Expect the supposedly rebuilding Broncos to continue to show that they are the class of the MWC against a decent San Diego St. squad that will be overwhelmed by the Boise home field advantage.
Michigan St. 17, (20) Nebraska 13
The Spartans are looking to finish strong after upsetting Wisconsin last week, and are much better than their 5-4 record indicates, while Nebraska will be overconfident after beating Michigan last week.
(21) West Virginia 45, TCU 34
Geno Smith is bound to get back on track sometime, and I think this will be the week, especially coming off of a bye. The Mountaineer defense still can't stop anyone though, so it will be close.
(22) Arizona 41, UCLA 30
This is technically an upset pick, as UCLA is at home and ranked higher in the human polls, but Arizona is a very, very good football team, and barring a letdown after the USC win, should win this game.
(25) Louisiana Tech 59, UTSA 20
Louisana Tech has a very high powered offense that will simply overmatch UTSA, who is on a 3 game skid after starting off 5-0.
Teams in MY rankings
Ohio St. 48, Illinois 10
Kent St. 38, Akron 10
N. Illinois 40, UMass 9
Other games of note
Michigan 37, Minnesota 23
Penn St. 27, Purdue 24
Washington 23, Cal 21
Arkansas 52, Tulsa 45
Ranked Teams
(1) Alabama 23, (5) LSU 9
I expect LSU to ride the adrenaline of playing in front of a rowdy home crowd to keep it interesting for the first half, but Alabama will put a few early drives together in the 3rd to take the fans out of it.
(2) Kansas St. 38, (24) Oklahoma St. 27
Were Oklahoma St. at home, this would be really interesting. Kansas St. will suffer a bit of a letdown after the past two weeks, but will have enough to pull out the W.
(3) Notre Dame 24, Pittsburgh 17
Another game that if the underdog were at home, could be a possible upset. Pitt is inconsistent, but Notre Dame may be overlooking them, resulting in a closer game than most expect.
(4) Oregon 52, (17) USC 24
As with LSU, USC will likely ride the home crowd to keep it close early, but Oregon's starters will be very hungry in the second half, a half that they have barely seen this year, and really open it up.
(6) Georgia 27, Ole Miss 16
Georgia is the epitome of inconsistency, and after a physically draining victory over Florida, will let Ole Miss hang around. In the end, the Rebels don't have enough firepower to make up a late deficit.
(7) Florida 34, Missouri 9
Be certain that Will Muschamp will have the Gators fired up after an awful loss to Georgia. Missouri got it's first SEC win last week, but Florida is no Kentucky.
(10) Louisville 45, Temple 30
Temple is reeling, but Louisville finds ways not to win comfortably. After the first two weeks, their biggest victory is 45-35 over Pitt. Expect a bit of separation by the end of this one, but be careful.
(11) Oregon State 30, Arizona St. 23
Handing the reins back to Cody Vaz after the surprising loss to Washington, the Beavers offense will be rejuvenated, and take down the Sun Devils who suffered a deflating loss to UCLA last week.
(12) Oklahoma 48, Iowa St. 13
Iowa St. is a respectable team, but the Sooners went crazy after their first loss, so I cannot imagine how much Stoops will have the team fired up after their second.
(13) Clemson 48, Duke 24
Duke will manage to put up a few points, as Clemson's defense is not at the same level as the Seminoles', but will have no answer for Tajh Boyd and the Tiger offense.
(14) Stanford 45, Colorado 9
Colorado has been resilient this year, but simply does not have the talent to compete with quality teams, as shown by the past two weeks against USC and Oregon. Expect the trend to continue.
(16) Texas A&M 34, (15) Mississippi St. 17
The Bulldogs were exposed in a major way last week, and while Texas A&M is not Alabama, they are still far better than any team Mississippi St. has beaten this year.
(18) Texas Tech 55, (23) Texas 30
Texas Tech will be out for blood after failing to show up against Kansas St., and come up against a vastly overrated Longhorns squad who barely squeaked out a win over Kansas (Kansas!).
(19) Boise St. 27, San Diego St. 13
Expect the supposedly rebuilding Broncos to continue to show that they are the class of the MWC against a decent San Diego St. squad that will be overwhelmed by the Boise home field advantage.
Michigan St. 17, (20) Nebraska 13
The Spartans are looking to finish strong after upsetting Wisconsin last week, and are much better than their 5-4 record indicates, while Nebraska will be overconfident after beating Michigan last week.
(21) West Virginia 45, TCU 34
Geno Smith is bound to get back on track sometime, and I think this will be the week, especially coming off of a bye. The Mountaineer defense still can't stop anyone though, so it will be close.
(22) Arizona 41, UCLA 30
This is technically an upset pick, as UCLA is at home and ranked higher in the human polls, but Arizona is a very, very good football team, and barring a letdown after the USC win, should win this game.
(25) Louisiana Tech 59, UTSA 20
Louisana Tech has a very high powered offense that will simply overmatch UTSA, who is on a 3 game skid after starting off 5-0.
Teams in MY rankings
Ohio St. 48, Illinois 10
Kent St. 38, Akron 10
N. Illinois 40, UMass 9
Other games of note
Michigan 37, Minnesota 23
Penn St. 27, Purdue 24
Washington 23, Cal 21
Arkansas 52, Tulsa 45
Mathieu's Week 9 NFL Picks
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
Bad weeks.
They happen to everyone. You’ll have one or two of those weeks every season
where it seems like everything that can go wrong with your picks, did, and it
will render all your hard work completely useless. The hours of research,
thought, and indecisiveness are wasted. Thus ends the summary of my Week 8 NFL
Picks. Sure, some went my way, but it didn’t happen often. My record on picks
last week was a laughable 6-8, but could have easily been 4-10 were it not for
miraculous last-second wins by the Bears and Lions.
Sometimes
things just don’t happen the way you want them to. Your intentions were good,
but everything turned out wrong. Take Tony Romo for example. He wasn’t trying to throw interceptions last week,
they just happened. The best thing in this situation, for Tony Romo and myself,
is to have a short memory. Forget the interceptions, the bad decisions, the
missed picks, because from this point on, they don’t matter. You have to do the
best you can to recover from your mistakes and rebound in a strong way. Romo
did just that last week, overcoming a 23-0 deficit to eventually take the lead
despite three early interceptions. Although the game did not end the way Romo
would have wanted (blame Dez Bryant’s fingers), he still came back strong. We
could all learn a little something from Mr. Romo, and no that something is not
“how to throw interceptions in an NFL game.” I can personally guarantee we all
know how to do that. Seriously. Think about it.
Without
further ado, here are my week 9 picks. Hopefully I can rebound as well as Mr.
Romo.
(My results from last
week, in each category, in parentheses)
Thursday Night
Football (0-1)
Kansas City Chiefs at
San Diego Chargers
The
Chargers have to rebound sometime, right? A home game against the worst team in
the NFL couldn’t have come at a better time. To this point, the Chiefs are 1-6,
and while the Chargers are only 3-4, the two teams could not be more different.
The Chiefs haven’t led in a game this season. Read that last sentence again.
Yes they won a game, but they won it on a game-winning field goal in overtime
against an also terrible Saints team. So technically they haven’t led in a game
yet. Pair that with a starting QB duo of Matt Cassel/Brady Quinn and it equals
disaster. This game is by no means a lock however, as the Chargers are by far
the best team in the league at finding ways to lose games. Their star in that
category so far this season is Phillip Rivers, who has been doing his best Ryan Fitzpatrick impression over the past month, posting the lowest 4th-quarter
QBR (4.6) of any quarterback in the NFL (including Fitzpatrick). At least the
Chargers are out of the month of October, and once the calendar flips over to
“Norv-ember,” Chargers teams seem to turn it on and always make a run at the
playoffs. The Chargers last win came against these same Chiefs, who are still
just as bad as they were back then. This may prove to be a bit of a comfort
zone for the Chargers, as they always seem to play the Chiefs confidently.
However, there always seems to be a few crazy developments each year in this rivalry, so I could see this one going either way.
X-Factor: In a
new development suggested by fellow contributor Sean Slocum, I’m including an
X-Factor player for each game. The X-Factor is chosen by examining the one
player who could individually swing each game in his team’s favor. For this
matchup, the X-Factor is Jamaal Charles. In the Chiefs lone win this
season, Jamaal Charles ran wild over the Saints for over 200 yards. If Charles
somehow runs wild over the Chargers 2nd ranked rush defense and also
gets heavily involved in the passing game, the Chiefs will have a very good
chance of winning this game.
The
Chargers should focus their game plan around stopping Charles, as he is the
only real threat on the Chiefs offense. With Norv Turner though, you never know
what he might to do try and lose the game each week. Chargers win a close one. San Diego 24-19.
Lock Games of the
Week (4-0)
Baltimore Ravens at
Cleveland Browns
The Browns
are coming off a gutty 7-6 win over the Chargers, while the Ravens had a bye
last week to recharge their batteries. It couldn’t have been a better time for
a bye for the Ravens, who seemed to be mentally and physically depleted after
losing two of their better defensive players in Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb.
Webb and Lewis won’t be back, but the bye gave Terrell Suggs an extra week to
get even healthier, and he should be a terror for Brandon Weeden and the Browns
offense in this game. I fully expect the Ravens to focus their strategy around
stopping Trent Richardson, because Brandon Weeden just isn’t scaring anyone at
this point in his career. The Browns have been playing close games all year
however, and outside of their loss to the Giants, their widest margin of defeat
came at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, a game they lost 24-14.
X-Factor: Ray
Rice. This choice may seem obvious, but the Ravens have too often been
letting Joe Flacco attempt to prove his statement that he is elite, while
getting away from using their best offensive weapon in the process. Ray Rice is
currently the best player on this team (outside of a fully healthy Terrell
Suggs), and if the Ravens remember this in time for the game on Sunday, they
should have no problem winning this game.
John
Harbaugh is a smart guy, and he gives Rice a healthy workload. Ravens gain some
lost confidence with a convincing win. Baltimore
31-13.
Arizona Cardinals at
Green Bay Packers
A turnstile offensive line on
the road at Lambeau Field against sack machine/ray of sunshine Clay Matthews?
Sign me up for a lock. While the Cardinals pass rush, led by surprise Daryl
Washington, should prove troublesome for the Packers offensive line who allow
their fair share of sacks, I just don’t see the Cardinals mustering enough
offense to beat a strong Packers team in this one. Aaron Rodgers continued his
hot streak last week vs. Jacksonville, although the final score wasn’t as
dominant as it should have been, and the defense just continues to improve.
X Factor: Clay
Matthews has been a force this season and it should continue against a
Cardinals team that is starting the comic book guy from Simpsons at right
tackle.
Easiest
game to pick this week (I said that about Bears-Panthers last week and look how
that turned out) so expect the Packers to come away with a W here, even if it
is harder to come by than what’s expected. Green
Bay 23-10.
Chicago Bears at
Tennessee Titans
Despite the close call against
the Panthers (much to my dismay) the Bears keep racking up the wins. Expect the
trend to continue against an overmatched Titans team. While the offense has
been improving with Matt Hasselbeck under center, the defense is still a
bottom-5 defense in the league (28th vs. rush, 29th vs.
pass). With the Bears primed to do whatever they want on offense, it’s the
defense that will do most of the hard work on Sunday. While the Titans offense
is getting better, it’s going to take a huge effort to beat this Bears defense
that seems to be scoring more points than many teams’ offenses these days. Tillman and Jennings should blanket the
receivers on the outside while Urlacher and Briggs are sure to keep a close eye
on Chris Johnson in this one.
X-Factor: Jay
Cutler. Warning: as long as I do x-factors, Jay Cutler will be the x-factor in any game the Bears are
involved in. With the defense being as good as it is, if good Jay Cutler shows
up, the Bears will be nearly unbeatable. If bad Jay Cutler shows up, then the
defense will probably score enough points to win anyway.
As long as
Cutler keeps the ball away from Titan defenders and keeps Matt Forte heavily
involved, the Bears should fly out of Tennessee with a win. And I haven’t even
talked about the freak that is Brandon Marshall. Chicago 28-12.
Buffalo Bills at
Houston Texans
The eternal
optimists that are Bills fans may argue that the Bills, coming off a bye in
which they only got healthier (Mario Williams anyone?), may have a punchers
chance in this one. I’m here to tell you that the Bills honestly have a better
chance next week. In New England. For many that don’t know, the Texans are also
coming off a bye in which they allowed J.J. Watt to rest the giant fly-swatters he has for arms. They are also at home. They also should know how to neutralize
Mario Williams better than any team so far. That does not bode well for the
Bills prospects of stopping the Texans offense. If and when the Texans jump out
to a 10-20 point lead, their 6th ranked rushing attack should have
no problem controlling the clock against the Bills rush defense that is ranked dead last in the league in terms of
yards allowed.
X-Factor: C.
J. Spiller. With no serious X-Factors on the Texans aside from Watt, our
attention is turned to Spiller. CJ has the ability to terrify any defense,
regardless of stinginess. The question is whether or not Chan Gailey will give
Spiller enough touches to seriously influence the outcome of the game. If
Spiller miraculously manages to get anywhere from 25-30 touches however, the
Bills may actually have a puncher’s chance.
The Bills
are a badly coached team. That’s all there is to it. An early lead should be
all the Texans need to limit C.J. Spiller’s influence and they should have no
problem running all over this physically and mentally weak Bills defense. Arian
Foster leads all running backs this week in fantasy points. Houston 38-20.
Minnesota Vikings at
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have the best
home-field advantage in the NFL, and along with their stingy defense it makes
them a very tough team to play in Seattle. Both teams are coming off tough
losses with the Seahawks more likely to respond with the strength of 80,000
crazed fans behind them. Christian Ponder stock has been trending downward
since their upset of the 49ers, and with that falling stock has come losses.
Ponder is unlikely to rebound with Browner and Sherman blanketing receivers on
the outside, so they are likely to rely heavily on Adrian Peterson on Sunday.
X-Factor: Percy
Harvin. Since the Seahawks are bound to put all their efforts into
containing Peterson, the Vikings would be smart to utilize the uber-talented
Harvin. His ability to return kicks, lineup in the backfield, and play
outstanding receiver has made Harvin one of the most valuable players in the
league, and if the Vikings get a huge game out of him, they might stand a
chance against the Seahawks since they are unlikely to get blown away by
Russell Wilson and Co.
Home field
is just too kind to the Seahawks, helping them play with much more swagger and
confidence. Should be a close game, but the Seahawks defense proves to be too
much for Ponder and the Vikings. Seattle
20-13.
Close Calls (2-6)
Denver Broncos at
Cincinnati Bengals
As much as
I hate to say it, it looks like Peyton Manning is all the way back (wobbly
throws and all) and that is not good news for opposing defenses. The Bengals
pass defense is average in the literal sense of the word (16th in
the league), and is likely not good enough to contain a Manning. Peyton has yet
to throw an interception since his first quarter from hell vs. the Falcons, and
Willis McGahee has also been getting it done on the ground. This offense seems
to be firing on all cylinders right now, and it may prove to be too much for
the Bengals to keep up with.
X-Factor: A.
J. Green. Whether the Bengals are playing catch-up or not, it is in their
best interest to get Green involved early and often. He is the best player on
the team and quite possibly the best receiver in the league. If Andy Dalton can
consistently get Green the ball (preferably in the end zone), the Bengals
playing at home can pull this one out. Co
X-factor: Von Miller. Is this against the rules? Who cares it’s my
article. If Von Miller can get back to being the disruptive force he was in his
rookie season and gets to Dalton early and often, it can negate Green’s
influence on the game. If this is the case, look for the Broncos to pull away
early.
Home field
advantage can only sometimes beat superior talent. Bengals can’t keep up with
good ol’ Noodle Arm in this one. Denver
28-20.
Miami Dolphins at
Indianapolis Colts
Before the season started, this
game looked like it was going to be the decisive game in deciding which of
these two teams would have the 1st overall pick in the 2013 draft
(assuming the world doesn’t end in December). Now, however, this game looks
like it may end up being the decisive game in the chase for the second
wild-card position. This notion seemed to be unbelievable prior to the season,
but the Dolphins defense and Andrew Luck/Spirit of Chuck Pagano keeps willing
their respective teams to victory. Both teams are young, coming off big
division wins, brimming with confidence, and looking to prove themselves. Word
out of Miami is that Ryan Tannehill will be back in the starting role for the
Dolphins, but is that necessarily a good thing? With Vontae Davis squaring off
against his old team, look for him to make a statement by leading an
opportunistic secondary to a couple turnovers. On the other team, their rookie
quarterback isn’t half bad, so they clearly have the advantage there. The
Dolphins are phenomenal at defending the run, but the Colts don’t change old
ways too much, as they hardly rely on the run anyway. Look for Luck to have a
solid game against a questionable Dolphins secondary (outside of Sean Smith).
But what if….
X-Factor: Cameron
Wake. The AstroTurf in Lucas Oil Stadium should only enhance the speed of
an already lightning-quick Wake, as he has the potential to swing this game in
the Dolphins’ favor.
I fully
expect Wake to wreak havoc and force Andrew Luck into a few rookie mistakes of
his own. The Dolphins should ride the energy of Wake along with a solid running
game to a victory in the dome. Miami
23-21.
Carolina Panthers at
Washington Redskins
Besides the
Eagles, is there another team in as much turmoil as the Panthers? Second-year
QB Cam Newton is in the midst of a sophomore slump for the ages, and the team
is getting no use out of their +$50 million backfield. They may be improving
however after a near-upset of the Bears, but they are going to need more
production out of Newton if they want to salvage some pride out of this already
lost season. The Redskins on the other hand, throw out RGIII, who is basically
Cam Newton only smaller and with more accuracy. The Redskins could easily be
5-3 right now instead of 3-5 if it weren’t for their receivers. They may have
the worst defense in the league (because of injuries), but if it weren’t for
Josh Morgan’s brain-flatulence against the Rams, and the 15 dropped passes against the Steelers, we would be looking at a completely different team right
now.
X-Factor: Bob
Griffin, as he’s known to the Giants, RGIII to the rest of us. If Double
Junior goes off in this game, the Panthers have no hope. Considering the
Panthers are down their leader on defense (Jon Beason), and one of their top
corners (Chris Gamble), RGIII may prove to be too much for the Panthers to
contain as long as his receivers are cured of their case of the drops.
To the
surprise of nobody, Robert Griffin wipes the floor with the Panthers defense,
leading the Skins to their 4th win of the season. Washington 37-28.
Detroit Lions at
Jacksonville Jaguars
Normally, the home team always
has some sort of advantage. Except when the home team plays their games in
Jacksonville in front of 37 fans each Sunday. The Jaguars were boring to watch
even when they were good. Contrarily, the Lions are extremely exciting to watch
when they’re good, and they are most certainly good (on offense at least). The
missing link for the Lions this year has been their biggest asset: Calvin
Johnson. At the moment, Megatron can’t find his way into the end zone, when
last year he accounted for 16 touchdowns. If he breaks out on Sunday, expect
the Lions to run away with the game.
X-Factor: Calvin
Johnson. Big surprise, I know, but if Johnson can find his way into the end
zone 1, 2, or 3 times, the Jaguars won’t be able to keep up with the Lions.
These days,
the Lions seem to be playing close games with everyone, regardless of how good
the opponent is. Playing away from Ford Field, the Lions manage to not destroy
the Jags, who just played the Packers tough. Detroit 26-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
at Oakland Raiders
Once upon a time, the Black Hole
was an extremely tough place to play. The fans were as relentless as the team,
and the Raiders were winners. Nowadays, the Raiders, lacking an identity since
the passing of Al Davis, seem to be in a state of flux. Carson Palmer doesn’t
seem to be the answer at quarterback, Darren McFadden is MIA, and their only
real playmaker on defense is an aging Richard Seymour. They still have great
talent at the skill positions on offense however, and if Darren McFadden has a
strong second half, this team can play spoiler down the stretch. The Buccaneers
on the other hand have an immense amount of young talent, and once they shore
up their secondary (the trade of Aqib Talib was necessary but certainly didn’t
help) they should seriously contend for the division and possibly even the
Super Bowl. While this seems to be a year or two away, there’s no denying the
Bucs talent now.
X-Factor: Gerald
McCoy. So far this season, McCoy is proving to be a much more valuable
asset than his draft counterpart, Ndamukong Suh. If The Real McCoy can
consistently penetrate the backfield and disrupt Palmer and McFadden, the Bucs
may be able to win this one soundly.
The Tampa
Pirates plunder the Black Hole and return home with the spoils of victory. And
there is no doubt a few Bucs will land some Oakland booty (pirate joke,
obviously). Tampa Bay 27-23.
Dallas Cowboys at
Atlanta Falcons
The Cowboys may be demoralized
after that tough loss literally by the fingertips to the Giants, while the
Falcons are flying high after a convincing win over the Eagles. As I described
above, Tony Romo does have the mental fortitude to recover from his abundance
of turnovers. The next step is to not make turnovers in the first place, but
against this Falcons team that leads the league in turnover differential, that
my be a tall order for our friend Mr. Romo. With Demarco Murray still out with
a foot injury, the Falcons will focus in on forcing Romo into making more bad
decisions, and players of the likes of Decoud and Samuel should be there to
reap the benefits. The Falcons should have their hands full with the Cowboys
defense, however, as Rob Ryan has the Boys pass defense ranked 3rd
in the league. This should be enough to somewhat neutralize Julio Jones and
Roddy White, but without Sean Lee in the lineup for the Cowboys, expect Tony
Gonzalez to have a solid day at tight end.
X-Factor: Dez
Bryant is the x-factor for every Cowboys game isn’t he? If his fingers
aren’t 2 inches out of bounds, the Boys beat the Giants last week, and if he
shows up against the Seahawks in September, the Boys could be 5-2 right now. If
Dez has a big game Sunday night, the Boys could keep this game close.
The Falcons
are near unbeatable in the Georgia Dome since Matt Ryan took over as
quarterback, and that trend should continue, aiding in the Cowboys tailspin. Atlanta 30-20.
Philadelphia Eagles at
New Orleans Saints
I was extremely tempted to make
this my game of the week, but I was swayed the other way by the fact that
neither of these teams are likely to contend for the playoffs. There is no
doubt that this may be one of, if not the, most exciting game of the weekend.
Michael Vick has been under heavy criticism lately (undeserved criticism in my
opinion, that opinion to come in a later column) as have the rest of the Eagles
coaching staff. Firing Juan Castillo was a scapegoat move that already seems to
be a mistake in the eyes of some Eagles, as the team was losing because of the
offense’s deficiencies rather than the defensive shortcomings. If the Eagles
give Vick ample time to throw the ball and create plays and LeSean McCoy
finally has the huge game that he is due to have, the Eagles may pull one out
in the Superdome. Quietly, however, the Eagles stopped getting pressure on the
quarterback this season, which is exposing some weaknesses in the secondary.
Drew Brees should have his way with the Eagles defense, but will he be able to
hold a lead with a porous defense attempting to get him the ball back?
X-Factor: Michael
Vick. Another obvious selection, but as Michael Vick goes, so go the
Eagles. If your team’s success solely depends upon your performance, does that
not make you a perennial x-factor? If Vick is well protected and makes smart
decisions, the Eagles will win.
In my upset
pick of the week, the Iggles offensive line protects a determined Vick long enough for him
to lead the team to victory as the Eagles outgun the Saints in New Orleans. Philadelphia 42-34.
Game of the Week
(0-1)
Pittsburgh Steelers at
New York Giants
After Hurricane Katrina ravaged
New Orleans in 2006, the Saints began the NFL season attempting to restore some
hope in a community that had lost everything. The Saints won their season
opener in spectacular fashion in the Superdome that had served as a shelter for
those that had been rendered homeless due to the disaster.
This week,
Hurricane Sandy ravaged the Jersey shore and flooded the Greater New York area.
Many people remain homeless and in need of hope. This hope will come in the
form of the New York football Giants, defending Super Bowl Champions. With one
of the New York teams floundering, these Giants are one of the few hopes that
many fans have left.
Both teams
come into this game on a roll, with the Steelers coming off a big win vs.
Washington and the Giants prevailing in a nail-biter against the Cowboys. This
game is a showdown of the two top quarterbacks to come out of the 2004 draft
(sorry J.P. Losman). Both boast two Super Bowl rings, both have dynamic
receivers, but only the Giants possess the truly dominant defense. Two years
ago this is a different story, but the Giants relentless pass rush along with
their ball hawking secondary is clearly above the Steelers solid-yet-aging
defense that is without their best player and his 32 inch long beautiful hair.
X-Factor: Stevie
Brown. Stevie who? Stevie Brown, for those of you who don’t know, took over
the safety position for the Giants when Kenny Phillips went down with an
injury. Since taking over for Phillips, Brown has 34 tackles and 4 interceptions in 5 games. Brown has
clearly been an impact player in this Giants secondary, and while Phillips is
slated to return from injury this week, it is expected that Brown will still
start. If Brown can continue his game breaking ways, the Giants should provide
the fans with hope.
The winner
of the turnover battle will win this game, and the Giants will prevail in both
on the fuel from the home fans and the play of Stevie Brown. Look for Eli to
turn in another clutch game winning drive late to propel the team to their 7th
win of the year. New York 28-27.
That’s it for my picks this week! Look out next week for a
comparison between Sean Slocum and me on our picks. It’ll turn into a heated
competition for the rest of the season, so stay tuned!
Last Week: 6-8
Season: 67-50
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