Mathieu's Second Half Bold Predictions

 Second Half Bold Predictions

            The first half of the NFL is in the books officially for every team in the league now, and while some of my preseason predictions have been right, most have been just a tiny bit off to say the least. This column is my chance to right my wrongs and correctly predict every important aspect (10 of them at least) for the second half of the season. So without further ado, here is my list of 10 bold predictions for the second half. *This column was written prior to this weeks games*

1). Chuck Pagano will be back on the sidelines in time to coach the Colts to their first playoff win without Peyton Manning in what seems like forever.

            Is the bold part of this prediction the fact that Pagano will coach again this season, that the Colts will make the playoffs, or that the Colts will win a playoff game? It could be any or all of the above. After Pagano’s awe-inspiring post game speech last week (which made me want to run through a wall for the guy) it appears as though he’s making progress in his fight against leukemia, and it is now known that his cancer is in remission and Bruce Arians fully expects him to lead the team out of the tunnel before the season is over. The team has been through a lot already this season, and with the help of rookie phenom Andrew Luck, the Colts are much closer to the post season than many thought they’d be. The team is playing inspired and with determination, and is clearly the story of the season in the NFL and probably the story of the year in all of sports. What better ending would this story have than to see the inspired team ride the emotions and will of their coach into an extremely improbable run at the playoffs after choosing first overall in the preceding draft. With the Colts in the middle of a future 30 for 30 film, I think this team is simply destined to make the postseason, and possibly even more.

            The most likely scenario here is the Colts earning the 6^th seed in the AFC, likely setting them up for a first round showdown with the Ravens (likely 3 seed). Andrew Luck vs. the Ravens secondary is a very favorable matchup, so if the Colts make it there, who’s to say they have to lose in the first round?

2.) By season’s end, Jay Cutler’s name will be among the ranks of the NFL’s elite QBs.

            As streaky as Jay Cutler is, he may very well be the most talented quarterback in the NFL. When he’s on, Cutler has the arm strength, accuracy, and awareness to make any throw on the field. When he’s off however, his passes don’t hit the ground because opposing defensive backs are busy running them back for scores. Most of the problem for Cutler in his time in Chicago has been his lack of a true receiver (Devin Hester doesn’t count), and his lack of protection on the offensive line. Now that Cutler is reunited with Brandon Marshall though, he’s been a changed quarterback (aside from his 4 INT fiasco against the Packers). Marshall is among the NFL’s elite at receiver, and is that not because of Cutler? Before this season, Marshall’s last truly dominant season was back with the Broncos, where Cutler was slinging him passes. But how does any of this make Cutler eligible to join the “Elite QB Club”? Well…

3.) Jay Cutler will be named Super Bowl XLVII MVP.

            This just seems like the Bears year doesn’t it? Am I really alone here? Yes the Falcons are unbeaten, yes the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, yes the Texans are physically dominant, and yes both Mannings are once again leading winning teams. But none of these teams have the defense of the Bears. A defense that takes the ball away from opposing offenses more than any other, and then takes those turnovers straight into the end zone for an easy 6, makes this Bears team different from the past. The personnel on this Bears defense is largely unchanged however, and the last time the Bears’ defense was this good, they lost Super Bowl XLI to Peyton Manning and the Colts. The difference? The Bears’ QB that season was none other than “Sexy” Rexy Grossman. The name says it all doesn’t it? Needless to say, Jay Cutler is not Rex Grossman. If Cutler plays that game rather than Grossman, the Bears likely win after holding Peyton Manning in check for the better portion of the evening. This year’s Bears defense isn’t intimidated by anybody, so they likely won’t be scared to see the opposing signal-caller in this year’s Super Bowl. Who will that be you ask? Well they always say history repeats itself, so…

4.) In a rematch of Super Bowl XX, the Chicago Bears will defeat…The New England Patriots.­

            Before this season started, the team in the NFL with the most hype was not the defending Super Bowl champs; it was the Super Bowl runner-ups, the Patriots. Analysts were predicting a big season for the Patsies, even a few whispers of another 16-0 campaign. This was not without good reason, what with last season’s emergence of “The Gronk”, this season’s addition of Brandon Lloyd, the draft helping retool the defense (although they still can’t defend the pass), and oh yeah, they still have a quarterback ranked in the top 5 in NFL HISTORY. Those whispers of going undefeated ended quickly though, as the Patriots lost in week 2 and stumbled out to a 3-3 start. But isn’t this year’s Patriots team more talented than it was a year ago, a year in which they still made the Super Bowl? Shouldn’t it be easier to make the big game this year with a more talented team in a weaker AFC? I think so. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and he has phenomenal chemistry with Gronkowski, Welker, and Lloyd and Hernandez when they are healthy.
            The difference maker this year is out of the Pats’ control, however. The conference is weaker as a whole, with the exception of the Texans. The Ravens are weaker on defense and Flacco seems to not have taken any major steps forward, the Bengals have regressed, the Steelers’ defense is another year older (Polamalu has yet to string healthy games together), so the only real threat is the Texans. I believe the Texans do not match up well with the Patriots, and you will all see why when they meet in week 14. The best way to defeat the Patriots is with an explosive passing attack, which the Texans do not possess, or by knocking down Brady, which is Watt’s specialty, but the Hoodie will game plan around him (the Giants have 5 legitimate pass rushing threats, more than Houston). The Texans run, run, then play-action. That is enough to fool some teams with weaker linebackers and coaching (Buffalo Bills anyone?), but may not be enough against more elite teams (Texans lost to the Packers. By a lot.). The Texans have been magnificent on defense, mostly thanks to Watt swatting passes, but again, I fully expect the Patriots to game plan around him. The Pats passing attack will prove to be too multi-faceted for the Texans. If the Texans do catch on to the Pats passing attack however, Bill Belichick can always dial up his new-found weapon, one that he hasn’t possessed since the team’s last Super Bowl victory; A running game. Come February, expect Tom Brady to skip another pro bowl on his way to losing yet another Super Bowl.

5.) Matt Ryan will not win MVP.
            At the midway point of the season, the general consensus is that Ryan is the MVP (there are some whispers about Manning or Rodgers). By the end of the season, the Falcons will be somewhere around 13-3 or 14-2 (no way they go undefeated in that tough NFC South). While that is a good enough record to earn Ryan the award, there will be one player in the league to surpass him in the MVP race…

6.) The player to beat out Ryan for MVP will not be named Aaron or Peyton.
            Good ‘Ol Noodle Arm has been having a tremendous season and will be a no-brainer for Comeback Player of the Year, and Aaron Rodgers is once again single-handedly willing the Packers to victories behind his golden arm. But again, as good as these guys have been playing, there will be things working against them:

·      Aaron Rodgers won the MVP last year, and the NFL has been funny about giving it to the same player in consecutive years despite back-to-back dominant seasons.

·      Peyton Manning has won three MVP awards in his career, and his numbers this season won’t compare to those he posted in his award-winning campaigns.

So who will win the award you ask?

7.) Andrew Luck will win the MVP.
            These predictions are supposed to be bold! Don’t judge! With my defense being stated, I believe Andrew Luck will have done enough by the end of the season to will the Colts to the playoffs. That honestly should be enough to get the MVP by itself, but to be fair, we’ll include some statistics and information:

o   Through 9 weeks Luck has thrown for 2,631 yards. The same number through 8 weeks as the Noodle, and on pace for 4,677 which would be a new rookie record, breaking the one Cam Newton set last season by over 600 yards.

o   Approaching 5,000 yards passing is absurd, even in today’s pass happy game. To do it as a rookie is unheard of.

o   Luck has already set the single-game rookie passing record, throwing for 433 yards last week.

o   Luck has single-handedly revived Reggie Wayne’s career, as many thought he was nearing the end after last season (one in which Curtis Painter was throwing him the ball).

o   Luck’s total QBR is 77.6 this season, better than the likes of Rodgers, Eli, and Brees, and trailing only Peyton, Brady, and Ryan.

o   Luck is a rookie. The rest of those guys are seasoned vets and Super Bowl Champs (except for Ryan).

Overall, Luck has far less talent around him than Matt Ryan and is doing a phenomenal job with what he has.
            The most important part of this argument however, is that the Colts finished with the worst record in the league last season. To lead a team from a first overall pick to a first round playoff matchup is unfathomable for any quarterback. It is even more unfathomable for a rookie quarterback. With head coach Chuck Pagano battling leukemia, even more pressure is on Luck’s shoulders to lead this team. Simply getting the Colts into the playoffs would be good enough for the MVP in my eyes. A playoff victory would just be icing on the cake. Sorry Matt Ryan, maybe next year.

8.) Andy Reid, Jason Garrett, and Chan Gailey will not finish the season as their respective teams head coach.
            All three teams have a common theme; failed expectations. Each of these teams has seemingly improved since last year, and all were expected to contend for the playoffs. Each has had their own individual problems however, and the coaches seem to be the next ones out the door.
            In Dallas, Jason Garrett is basically asking Jerry Jones to fire him. The Princeton grad constantly runs out an immensely talented, undisciplined, and underachieving team. The three adjectives should not go together, and Garrett’s inability to control his team should have him out of Dallas quickly. I expect him to be the first to be fired.
Garrett’s EDT (Estimated Date of Termination): November 12, if the Boys lose convincingly against division rival Philadelphia.
            Speaking of Philadelphia, Andy Reid has been on the hot seat since the start of the 2011 season. After Vince Young’s talk of a Dream Team, the Eagles had a horrendous start, effectively ending their season by week 8. Much of the blame was placed on Juan Castillo, offensive line coach – turned defensive coordinator (makes sense right?) but the Eagles finished the season strongly, which may have saved Reid’s job coming into this season. The Eagles once again had a strong offseason; picking up DeMeco Ryans to shore up their linebacking corps, yet this year the problem is the offensive line and Michael Vick, who has looked completely inept when not lying on the ground under defenders. Reid has more hope than Garrett does to keep his job, but he will need to win now and most likely make the playoffs to do so. This may be possible, but he needs to find a way to keep Vick upright.
Reid’s EDT: December 31^st. Happy New Year! You’re unemployed. This is exactly what I expect Eagles’ GM Howie Roseman to tell Andy Reid after he finds a way to lose their week 17 matchup with the Giants (most likely by botching timeouts late) to miss the playoffs.
            Chan Gailey is the most interesting case out of the three, as he has the GM that may just be dumb enough to keep him around. With the talent the Bills have on both sides of the ball, there is no excuse to not be at least 4-4 at this point in the season. Looking back at the first half, the Bills have lost three very winnable games (Jets, Patriots, Titans), mainly because of Gailey and his undying trust in the anemic Ryan Fitzpatrick, his mishandling of the extremely talented C.J. Spiller, and his ignorance on the subject of, well, the Bills’ defense. Buddy Nix seems committed to losing however, so I fear that Gailey’s job may be safe unless Nix is also Nixed (see what I did there?).
Gailey’s EDT: January 1^st. If Ralph Wilson is as involved with the team as Russ Brandon says he is, then Ralph will to the right thing for the team and fire Nix along with Gailey. This will happen the day after black Monday however (Black Monday referring to the day after NFL week 17 on which most firings of coaches occur), because Wilson is extremely old and old people just move slower than the rest of us.

9.) Tom Brady will once again throw for over 5,000 yards.
            Brady already has 2,408 yards passing, and his second half is comprised of several below-average pass defenses. With the Patriots likely to explode and string together 4 or 5 wins any week now, Brady is sure to have some big games. After last season, we will start seeing 5,000-yard seasons with more regularity, and also I love Tom Brady.

10. The Buffalo Bills will finish with 5 or 6 wins and have yet another top-10 draft pick.
            For my obligatory prediction for the Bills (the short bit on Gailey doesn’t count), I chose to predict the end of their inevitably horrible and disappointing season. The Bills realistically have 4 to 5 winnable games remaining, which means they might win 2 of them. That’s just how the Bills go about things. Here’s how the rest of the season will shake out on 1 Bills Drive:

o   Week 10: The Bills WILL get trounced by the Patriots coming off a bye in Foxboro. This will be the ever-so-common season in which the Bills have two blowout losses to the Patsies (I was half-wrong on this one, since we still lost).

o   Week 11: On 3 days rest for both teams, the Bills should gut out a victory at home in the cold against the Dolphins (as long as Gailey isn’t baited into throwing the ball 40 times by the Dolphins high-ranked rush defense, more to come later).

o   Week 12: At Indianapolis. Before the season this was an automatic win. Now I see no chance unless Tarvaris Jackson is somehow dressing for games by then.

o   Week 13: Home vs. Jacksonville. A win is fully expected. A loss would be a blessing in disguise. We would be the laughingstock of the league with a loss (but we might be already), but it would also all but guarantee Gailey would be fired the next day.

o   Week 14: St. Louis is sneaky-dangerous (they tied the 49ers this week, a team that blew the Bills away). They should win this game as long as it’s not snowing, but that’s no guarantee.

o   Week 15: Seattle isn’t great on the road, but it will still feel like a home game for them in the dome (this is the now-infamous annual Toronto game). Bills lose (what’s new).

o   Week 16: Miami will likely still be in contention at this point, making them much more likely to do something the Bills will not; try.

o   Week 17: If Tebow time isn’t in full swing by this time, then the world will have actually ended 9 days prior. But this time he’s on the Jets so the Bills will find a way to lose.

As these predictions stand, the Bills would be looking at a 5-11 record, and one of the more disappointing seasons in recent memory, which is especially awful because every season is disappointing for this team. A top 10, maybe even top 5-draft pick is imminent, and a franchise QB will almost certainly be selected. 6 months from now, the Bills will have a new look front office, coaching staff, and quarterback. Most importantly though, the Bills will have a new hope.

I hope you’ve enjoyed my predictions, and I hope you remember you saw them here first!