WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
Bad weeks.
They happen to everyone. You’ll have one or two of those weeks every season
where it seems like everything that can go wrong with your picks, did, and it
will render all your hard work completely useless. The hours of research,
thought, and indecisiveness are wasted. Thus ends the summary of my Week 8 NFL
Picks. Sure, some went my way, but it didn’t happen often. My record on picks
last week was a laughable 6-8, but could have easily been 4-10 were it not for
miraculous last-second wins by the Bears and Lions.
Sometimes
things just don’t happen the way you want them to. Your intentions were good,
but everything turned out wrong. Take Tony Romo for example. He wasn’t trying to throw interceptions last week,
they just happened. The best thing in this situation, for Tony Romo and myself,
is to have a short memory. Forget the interceptions, the bad decisions, the
missed picks, because from this point on, they don’t matter. You have to do the
best you can to recover from your mistakes and rebound in a strong way. Romo
did just that last week, overcoming a 23-0 deficit to eventually take the lead
despite three early interceptions. Although the game did not end the way Romo
would have wanted (blame Dez Bryant’s fingers), he still came back strong. We
could all learn a little something from Mr. Romo, and no that something is not
“how to throw interceptions in an NFL game.” I can personally guarantee we all
know how to do that. Seriously. Think about it.
Without
further ado, here are my week 9 picks. Hopefully I can rebound as well as Mr.
Romo.
(My results from last
week, in each category, in parentheses)
Thursday Night
Football (0-1)
Kansas City Chiefs at
San Diego Chargers
The
Chargers have to rebound sometime, right? A home game against the worst team in
the NFL couldn’t have come at a better time. To this point, the Chiefs are 1-6,
and while the Chargers are only 3-4, the two teams could not be more different.
The Chiefs haven’t led in a game this season. Read that last sentence again.
Yes they won a game, but they won it on a game-winning field goal in overtime
against an also terrible Saints team. So technically they haven’t led in a game
yet. Pair that with a starting QB duo of Matt Cassel/Brady Quinn and it equals
disaster. This game is by no means a lock however, as the Chargers are by far
the best team in the league at finding ways to lose games. Their star in that
category so far this season is Phillip Rivers, who has been doing his best Ryan Fitzpatrick impression over the past month, posting the lowest 4th-quarter
QBR (4.6) of any quarterback in the NFL (including Fitzpatrick). At least the
Chargers are out of the month of October, and once the calendar flips over to
“Norv-ember,” Chargers teams seem to turn it on and always make a run at the
playoffs. The Chargers last win came against these same Chiefs, who are still
just as bad as they were back then. This may prove to be a bit of a comfort
zone for the Chargers, as they always seem to play the Chiefs confidently.
However, there always seems to be a few crazy developments each year in this rivalry, so I could see this one going either way.
X-Factor: In a
new development suggested by fellow contributor Sean Slocum, I’m including an
X-Factor player for each game. The X-Factor is chosen by examining the one
player who could individually swing each game in his team’s favor. For this
matchup, the X-Factor is Jamaal Charles. In the Chiefs lone win this
season, Jamaal Charles ran wild over the Saints for over 200 yards. If Charles
somehow runs wild over the Chargers 2nd ranked rush defense and also
gets heavily involved in the passing game, the Chiefs will have a very good
chance of winning this game.
The
Chargers should focus their game plan around stopping Charles, as he is the
only real threat on the Chiefs offense. With Norv Turner though, you never know
what he might to do try and lose the game each week. Chargers win a close one. San Diego 24-19.
Lock Games of the
Week (4-0)
Baltimore Ravens at
Cleveland Browns
The Browns
are coming off a gutty 7-6 win over the Chargers, while the Ravens had a bye
last week to recharge their batteries. It couldn’t have been a better time for
a bye for the Ravens, who seemed to be mentally and physically depleted after
losing two of their better defensive players in Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb.
Webb and Lewis won’t be back, but the bye gave Terrell Suggs an extra week to
get even healthier, and he should be a terror for Brandon Weeden and the Browns
offense in this game. I fully expect the Ravens to focus their strategy around
stopping Trent Richardson, because Brandon Weeden just isn’t scaring anyone at
this point in his career. The Browns have been playing close games all year
however, and outside of their loss to the Giants, their widest margin of defeat
came at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, a game they lost 24-14.
X-Factor: Ray
Rice. This choice may seem obvious, but the Ravens have too often been
letting Joe Flacco attempt to prove his statement that he is elite, while
getting away from using their best offensive weapon in the process. Ray Rice is
currently the best player on this team (outside of a fully healthy Terrell
Suggs), and if the Ravens remember this in time for the game on Sunday, they
should have no problem winning this game.
John
Harbaugh is a smart guy, and he gives Rice a healthy workload. Ravens gain some
lost confidence with a convincing win. Baltimore
31-13.
Arizona Cardinals at
Green Bay Packers
A turnstile offensive line on
the road at Lambeau Field against sack machine/ray of sunshine Clay Matthews?
Sign me up for a lock. While the Cardinals pass rush, led by surprise Daryl
Washington, should prove troublesome for the Packers offensive line who allow
their fair share of sacks, I just don’t see the Cardinals mustering enough
offense to beat a strong Packers team in this one. Aaron Rodgers continued his
hot streak last week vs. Jacksonville, although the final score wasn’t as
dominant as it should have been, and the defense just continues to improve.
X Factor: Clay
Matthews has been a force this season and it should continue against a
Cardinals team that is starting the comic book guy from Simpsons at right
tackle.
Easiest
game to pick this week (I said that about Bears-Panthers last week and look how
that turned out) so expect the Packers to come away with a W here, even if it
is harder to come by than what’s expected. Green
Bay 23-10.
Chicago Bears at
Tennessee Titans
Despite the close call against
the Panthers (much to my dismay) the Bears keep racking up the wins. Expect the
trend to continue against an overmatched Titans team. While the offense has
been improving with Matt Hasselbeck under center, the defense is still a
bottom-5 defense in the league (28th vs. rush, 29th vs.
pass). With the Bears primed to do whatever they want on offense, it’s the
defense that will do most of the hard work on Sunday. While the Titans offense
is getting better, it’s going to take a huge effort to beat this Bears defense
that seems to be scoring more points than many teams’ offenses these days. Tillman and Jennings should blanket the
receivers on the outside while Urlacher and Briggs are sure to keep a close eye
on Chris Johnson in this one.
X-Factor: Jay
Cutler. Warning: as long as I do x-factors, Jay Cutler will be the x-factor in any game the Bears are
involved in. With the defense being as good as it is, if good Jay Cutler shows
up, the Bears will be nearly unbeatable. If bad Jay Cutler shows up, then the
defense will probably score enough points to win anyway.
As long as
Cutler keeps the ball away from Titan defenders and keeps Matt Forte heavily
involved, the Bears should fly out of Tennessee with a win. And I haven’t even
talked about the freak that is Brandon Marshall. Chicago 28-12.
Buffalo Bills at
Houston Texans
The eternal
optimists that are Bills fans may argue that the Bills, coming off a bye in
which they only got healthier (Mario Williams anyone?), may have a punchers
chance in this one. I’m here to tell you that the Bills honestly have a better
chance next week. In New England. For many that don’t know, the Texans are also
coming off a bye in which they allowed J.J. Watt to rest the giant fly-swatters he has for arms. They are also at home. They also should know how to neutralize
Mario Williams better than any team so far. That does not bode well for the
Bills prospects of stopping the Texans offense. If and when the Texans jump out
to a 10-20 point lead, their 6th ranked rushing attack should have
no problem controlling the clock against the Bills rush defense that is ranked dead last in the league in terms of
yards allowed.
X-Factor: C.
J. Spiller. With no serious X-Factors on the Texans aside from Watt, our
attention is turned to Spiller. CJ has the ability to terrify any defense,
regardless of stinginess. The question is whether or not Chan Gailey will give
Spiller enough touches to seriously influence the outcome of the game. If
Spiller miraculously manages to get anywhere from 25-30 touches however, the
Bills may actually have a puncher’s chance.
The Bills
are a badly coached team. That’s all there is to it. An early lead should be
all the Texans need to limit C.J. Spiller’s influence and they should have no
problem running all over this physically and mentally weak Bills defense. Arian
Foster leads all running backs this week in fantasy points. Houston 38-20.
Minnesota Vikings at
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have the best
home-field advantage in the NFL, and along with their stingy defense it makes
them a very tough team to play in Seattle. Both teams are coming off tough
losses with the Seahawks more likely to respond with the strength of 80,000
crazed fans behind them. Christian Ponder stock has been trending downward
since their upset of the 49ers, and with that falling stock has come losses.
Ponder is unlikely to rebound with Browner and Sherman blanketing receivers on
the outside, so they are likely to rely heavily on Adrian Peterson on Sunday.
X-Factor: Percy
Harvin. Since the Seahawks are bound to put all their efforts into
containing Peterson, the Vikings would be smart to utilize the uber-talented
Harvin. His ability to return kicks, lineup in the backfield, and play
outstanding receiver has made Harvin one of the most valuable players in the
league, and if the Vikings get a huge game out of him, they might stand a
chance against the Seahawks since they are unlikely to get blown away by
Russell Wilson and Co.
Home field
is just too kind to the Seahawks, helping them play with much more swagger and
confidence. Should be a close game, but the Seahawks defense proves to be too
much for Ponder and the Vikings. Seattle
20-13.
Close Calls (2-6)
Denver Broncos at
Cincinnati Bengals
As much as
I hate to say it, it looks like Peyton Manning is all the way back (wobbly
throws and all) and that is not good news for opposing defenses. The Bengals
pass defense is average in the literal sense of the word (16th in
the league), and is likely not good enough to contain a Manning. Peyton has yet
to throw an interception since his first quarter from hell vs. the Falcons, and
Willis McGahee has also been getting it done on the ground. This offense seems
to be firing on all cylinders right now, and it may prove to be too much for
the Bengals to keep up with.
X-Factor: A.
J. Green. Whether the Bengals are playing catch-up or not, it is in their
best interest to get Green involved early and often. He is the best player on
the team and quite possibly the best receiver in the league. If Andy Dalton can
consistently get Green the ball (preferably in the end zone), the Bengals
playing at home can pull this one out. Co
X-factor: Von Miller. Is this against the rules? Who cares it’s my
article. If Von Miller can get back to being the disruptive force he was in his
rookie season and gets to Dalton early and often, it can negate Green’s
influence on the game. If this is the case, look for the Broncos to pull away
early.
Home field
advantage can only sometimes beat superior talent. Bengals can’t keep up with
good ol’ Noodle Arm in this one. Denver
28-20.
Miami Dolphins at
Indianapolis Colts
Before the season started, this
game looked like it was going to be the decisive game in deciding which of
these two teams would have the 1st overall pick in the 2013 draft
(assuming the world doesn’t end in December). Now, however, this game looks
like it may end up being the decisive game in the chase for the second
wild-card position. This notion seemed to be unbelievable prior to the season,
but the Dolphins defense and Andrew Luck/Spirit of Chuck Pagano keeps willing
their respective teams to victory. Both teams are young, coming off big
division wins, brimming with confidence, and looking to prove themselves. Word
out of Miami is that Ryan Tannehill will be back in the starting role for the
Dolphins, but is that necessarily a good thing? With Vontae Davis squaring off
against his old team, look for him to make a statement by leading an
opportunistic secondary to a couple turnovers. On the other team, their rookie
quarterback isn’t half bad, so they clearly have the advantage there. The
Dolphins are phenomenal at defending the run, but the Colts don’t change old
ways too much, as they hardly rely on the run anyway. Look for Luck to have a
solid game against a questionable Dolphins secondary (outside of Sean Smith).
But what if….
X-Factor: Cameron
Wake. The AstroTurf in Lucas Oil Stadium should only enhance the speed of
an already lightning-quick Wake, as he has the potential to swing this game in
the Dolphins’ favor.
I fully
expect Wake to wreak havoc and force Andrew Luck into a few rookie mistakes of
his own. The Dolphins should ride the energy of Wake along with a solid running
game to a victory in the dome. Miami
23-21.
Carolina Panthers at
Washington Redskins
Besides the
Eagles, is there another team in as much turmoil as the Panthers? Second-year
QB Cam Newton is in the midst of a sophomore slump for the ages, and the team
is getting no use out of their +$50 million backfield. They may be improving
however after a near-upset of the Bears, but they are going to need more
production out of Newton if they want to salvage some pride out of this already
lost season. The Redskins on the other hand, throw out RGIII, who is basically
Cam Newton only smaller and with more accuracy. The Redskins could easily be
5-3 right now instead of 3-5 if it weren’t for their receivers. They may have
the worst defense in the league (because of injuries), but if it weren’t for
Josh Morgan’s brain-flatulence against the Rams, and the 15 dropped passes against the Steelers, we would be looking at a completely different team right
now.
X-Factor: Bob
Griffin, as he’s known to the Giants, RGIII to the rest of us. If Double
Junior goes off in this game, the Panthers have no hope. Considering the
Panthers are down their leader on defense (Jon Beason), and one of their top
corners (Chris Gamble), RGIII may prove to be too much for the Panthers to
contain as long as his receivers are cured of their case of the drops.
To the
surprise of nobody, Robert Griffin wipes the floor with the Panthers defense,
leading the Skins to their 4th win of the season. Washington 37-28.
Detroit Lions at
Jacksonville Jaguars
Normally, the home team always
has some sort of advantage. Except when the home team plays their games in
Jacksonville in front of 37 fans each Sunday. The Jaguars were boring to watch
even when they were good. Contrarily, the Lions are extremely exciting to watch
when they’re good, and they are most certainly good (on offense at least). The
missing link for the Lions this year has been their biggest asset: Calvin
Johnson. At the moment, Megatron can’t find his way into the end zone, when
last year he accounted for 16 touchdowns. If he breaks out on Sunday, expect
the Lions to run away with the game.
X-Factor: Calvin
Johnson. Big surprise, I know, but if Johnson can find his way into the end
zone 1, 2, or 3 times, the Jaguars won’t be able to keep up with the Lions.
These days,
the Lions seem to be playing close games with everyone, regardless of how good
the opponent is. Playing away from Ford Field, the Lions manage to not destroy
the Jags, who just played the Packers tough. Detroit 26-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
at Oakland Raiders
Once upon a time, the Black Hole
was an extremely tough place to play. The fans were as relentless as the team,
and the Raiders were winners. Nowadays, the Raiders, lacking an identity since
the passing of Al Davis, seem to be in a state of flux. Carson Palmer doesn’t
seem to be the answer at quarterback, Darren McFadden is MIA, and their only
real playmaker on defense is an aging Richard Seymour. They still have great
talent at the skill positions on offense however, and if Darren McFadden has a
strong second half, this team can play spoiler down the stretch. The Buccaneers
on the other hand have an immense amount of young talent, and once they shore
up their secondary (the trade of Aqib Talib was necessary but certainly didn’t
help) they should seriously contend for the division and possibly even the
Super Bowl. While this seems to be a year or two away, there’s no denying the
Bucs talent now.
X-Factor: Gerald
McCoy. So far this season, McCoy is proving to be a much more valuable
asset than his draft counterpart, Ndamukong Suh. If The Real McCoy can
consistently penetrate the backfield and disrupt Palmer and McFadden, the Bucs
may be able to win this one soundly.
The Tampa
Pirates plunder the Black Hole and return home with the spoils of victory. And
there is no doubt a few Bucs will land some Oakland booty (pirate joke,
obviously). Tampa Bay 27-23.
Dallas Cowboys at
Atlanta Falcons
The Cowboys may be demoralized
after that tough loss literally by the fingertips to the Giants, while the
Falcons are flying high after a convincing win over the Eagles. As I described
above, Tony Romo does have the mental fortitude to recover from his abundance
of turnovers. The next step is to not make turnovers in the first place, but
against this Falcons team that leads the league in turnover differential, that
my be a tall order for our friend Mr. Romo. With Demarco Murray still out with
a foot injury, the Falcons will focus in on forcing Romo into making more bad
decisions, and players of the likes of Decoud and Samuel should be there to
reap the benefits. The Falcons should have their hands full with the Cowboys
defense, however, as Rob Ryan has the Boys pass defense ranked 3rd
in the league. This should be enough to somewhat neutralize Julio Jones and
Roddy White, but without Sean Lee in the lineup for the Cowboys, expect Tony
Gonzalez to have a solid day at tight end.
X-Factor: Dez
Bryant is the x-factor for every Cowboys game isn’t he? If his fingers
aren’t 2 inches out of bounds, the Boys beat the Giants last week, and if he
shows up against the Seahawks in September, the Boys could be 5-2 right now. If
Dez has a big game Sunday night, the Boys could keep this game close.
The Falcons
are near unbeatable in the Georgia Dome since Matt Ryan took over as
quarterback, and that trend should continue, aiding in the Cowboys tailspin. Atlanta 30-20.
Philadelphia Eagles at
New Orleans Saints
I was extremely tempted to make
this my game of the week, but I was swayed the other way by the fact that
neither of these teams are likely to contend for the playoffs. There is no
doubt that this may be one of, if not the, most exciting game of the weekend.
Michael Vick has been under heavy criticism lately (undeserved criticism in my
opinion, that opinion to come in a later column) as have the rest of the Eagles
coaching staff. Firing Juan Castillo was a scapegoat move that already seems to
be a mistake in the eyes of some Eagles, as the team was losing because of the
offense’s deficiencies rather than the defensive shortcomings. If the Eagles
give Vick ample time to throw the ball and create plays and LeSean McCoy
finally has the huge game that he is due to have, the Eagles may pull one out
in the Superdome. Quietly, however, the Eagles stopped getting pressure on the
quarterback this season, which is exposing some weaknesses in the secondary.
Drew Brees should have his way with the Eagles defense, but will he be able to
hold a lead with a porous defense attempting to get him the ball back?
X-Factor: Michael
Vick. Another obvious selection, but as Michael Vick goes, so go the
Eagles. If your team’s success solely depends upon your performance, does that
not make you a perennial x-factor? If Vick is well protected and makes smart
decisions, the Eagles will win.
In my upset
pick of the week, the Iggles offensive line protects a determined Vick long enough for him
to lead the team to victory as the Eagles outgun the Saints in New Orleans. Philadelphia 42-34.
Game of the Week
(0-1)
Pittsburgh Steelers at
New York Giants
After Hurricane Katrina ravaged
New Orleans in 2006, the Saints began the NFL season attempting to restore some
hope in a community that had lost everything. The Saints won their season
opener in spectacular fashion in the Superdome that had served as a shelter for
those that had been rendered homeless due to the disaster.
This week,
Hurricane Sandy ravaged the Jersey shore and flooded the Greater New York area.
Many people remain homeless and in need of hope. This hope will come in the
form of the New York football Giants, defending Super Bowl Champions. With one
of the New York teams floundering, these Giants are one of the few hopes that
many fans have left.
Both teams
come into this game on a roll, with the Steelers coming off a big win vs.
Washington and the Giants prevailing in a nail-biter against the Cowboys. This
game is a showdown of the two top quarterbacks to come out of the 2004 draft
(sorry J.P. Losman). Both boast two Super Bowl rings, both have dynamic
receivers, but only the Giants possess the truly dominant defense. Two years
ago this is a different story, but the Giants relentless pass rush along with
their ball hawking secondary is clearly above the Steelers solid-yet-aging
defense that is without their best player and his 32 inch long beautiful hair.
X-Factor: Stevie
Brown. Stevie who? Stevie Brown, for those of you who don’t know, took over
the safety position for the Giants when Kenny Phillips went down with an
injury. Since taking over for Phillips, Brown has 34 tackles and 4 interceptions in 5 games. Brown has
clearly been an impact player in this Giants secondary, and while Phillips is
slated to return from injury this week, it is expected that Brown will still
start. If Brown can continue his game breaking ways, the Giants should provide
the fans with hope.
The winner
of the turnover battle will win this game, and the Giants will prevail in both
on the fuel from the home fans and the play of Stevie Brown. Look for Eli to
turn in another clutch game winning drive late to propel the team to their 7th
win of the year. New York 28-27.
That’s it for my picks this week! Look out next week for a
comparison between Sean Slocum and me on our picks. It’ll turn into a heated
competition for the rest of the season, so stay tuned!
Last Week: 6-8
Season: 67-50
No comments:
Post a Comment