Follow us on Twitter! @WNYSportsMinds

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

AFC Analysis

The midway point is approaching for the NFL in 2012. Just like every other year, this season has been full of very unexpected play from many different teams. A sort of mediocrity has been displayed throughout the league, with only a couple of teams clearly standing out. It is a very interesting AFC breakdown and with midseason coming soon, why not get a head start?

AFC East:


New England Patriots (4-3)


That's not a typo on the 4-3 record. This is something New England is not used to. They have had no problems moving the ball, averaging over 430 yards a game. But they added an element that they started having success with toward the end of last season. A RUNNING GAME. With the young burst from Stevan Ridley, the Patriots now have a feared ground game, which is never something a defense wants to hear especially when connected with an elite passing attack. However, the Pats pass defense has not improved much since last year. Fortunately they have decent run stop defense that includes linebackers Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes (always been a scumbag in my opinion), and Rob Ninkovich flying to the ball. In their three losses, the Pats have lost by a combined 4 points. A tough game in Seattle (when isn't it tough there), a wild and controversial ending in Baltimore and a very bad upset at home from the Cardinals haunt New England's first half of the season. Of course, it is fully expected from a team coached by Bill Belichick and led by Tom Brady, that New England will get things together in the later half of the season. 

Miami Dolphins (3-3)


Arguably the best team Miami defeated was the Cincinnati Bengals. Reggie Bush has taken a lot of pressure off rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, running the ball effectively. Miami will have to draft a receiver next year unless they think Davone Bess and Brian Hartline can carry the pass attack and help Tannehill succeed (laugh out loud). Although their defense is not considered anything special, most fail to realize that they have the 4th best rush defense in the league, letting up only 78 yards a game. Seattle, San Francisco and two games against the Patriots will be their biggest tests in the second half. This does not sound like a recipe for success for the Dolphins. 

New York Jets (3-4)


I will never see the Jets winning a Super Bowl as long as Mark Sanchez is their quarterback. The job didn't get done a few years ago when Rex Ryan first came over and Sanchez was a rookie. Of course it's a ridiculous task to ask a rookie quarterback to win your team a Super Bowl, but the Jets had a great defense at the time and a solid running game. Those first two years were the Jets most talented team under Rex Ryan, so it's a ridiculous thought for Rex to say that this is his most talented team since he started coaching the Jets. But that's just Rex being Rex. Although they have played tough at times, the defense has not been as solid as recent years. Unfortunately for them, they lost the best shutdown corner in the league in Darrelle Revis to a torn ACL. On the offensive side of the ball they lost a prime target for Sanchez, Santonio Holmes to a Lisfranc injury in which apparently was so painful he figured he'd add to the problem by giving the 49ers 7 points. Now I might come off rude saying that, but I watched Willis McGahee's knee explode while playing at the University of Miami, and he still controlled the football. Then there is the whole Tim Tebow factor. I can respect him on special teams, but he needs a more established role in their offense, or not be in it at all. Bringing in Tebow randomly throughout the game does not help Sanchez gather rhythm which is crucial in offense. 

Buffalo Bills (3-4)


Think of Muhammad Ali punching you in the gut ten times each Sunday. Doesn't sound fun? Oh well this is what Bills fans feel like every week. The coaching on both sides of the ball has been atrocious. Bills fans hoped Dave Wannstedt would come in and improve the defense. Ralph Wilson himself could score on the Bills defense on command. 227 points given up in 7 games is unfathomable and makes me believe I could be a better defensive coordinator for the Bills (at least i'd actually blitz our linebackers). Speaking of it, linebacker is definitely a weak position, and the defensive line has underperformed which is an understatement. And best of all, Mario Williams is being paid ridiculous money to dance with a tackle all game. On the other side Ryan Fitzpatrick makes bad decisions leading to picks, which usually leads to even more picks. He doesn't have the arm strength needed for the NFL level and overthrows short routes, which is extremely frustrating when he has talented players surrounding him. The Bills backfield of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller has been very effective, and both have overcome injuries already this season. Spiller has improved each year, learning the game more and more. He is now considered a legitimate threat to any defense in the NFL. Play calls that involved throwing the ball late in the game against the Cardinals and Titans have proven to be terrible decisions. Both resulted in picks, and even though the Bills pulled out a win in Arizona, they weren't as fortunate against the Titans at home. Here's an idea Chan: if you're gashing the defense in the running game, don't throw the ball with a late lead.

AFC West:


Denver Broncos (3-3)


Ah, what an interesting team coming into the season. That one kid named Tebow was off to the Jets after leading them to a playoff win against Pittsburgh and some guy named Peyton Manning replaced him. Joking aside, Peyton would have to prove himself after sitting out a full season as a Colt recovering from neck surgery. Doubts were off with Manning when he started the season with a win over Pittsburgh, only to be doubted the very next week when Manning threw three interceptions in the 1st Quarter. The Broncos would go on to lose the game but Manning has only thrown one other pick since then. As expected their passing offense is among the leagues best but their great running game from last season has not been nearly as effective. Also the defense has not played up to their standards as they have been average at best. It seems as though the Broncos have relied on Manning in a few different late fourth quarter comeback attempts. Peyton may not be as (Eli)te as he once was, but the man knows what he's doing and the running game needs to pick it up. Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreessen and Brandon Stokley have made a nice pass attack that has adapted well as an offense. Of course Stokley and Tamme were teammates of Manning on the Colts that have made things a bit more comfortable. Should be an interesting second half.

San Diego Chargers (3-3)


With the addition of Robert Meachem from the Saints and Antonio Gates being healthy coming into the season, the Chargers had high expectations. Ryan Mathews unfortunately missed the first couple games after breaking his collarbone in the preseason. Why are the Chargers at a 3-3 record? Philip Rivers. The quarterback that many consider one of the best has not produced in big games this year. In their latest game against the Broncos, Rivers threw four interceptions with three coming in the fourth quarter. He also fumbled twice, all surmounting to a second half meltdown that blew a 24-0 halftime lead. Denver won the game 35-24. Rivers has thrown nine interceptions on the season and San Diego has all three victories against subpar teams although I do acknowledge that the Raiders and Chiefs are divisional opponents. With the team having the best rush defense in the league, and Ryan Mathews starting to pick it up, Rivers needs to protect the football and help surge this team. Get Takeo Spikes his first playoff berth!

Oakland Raiders (2-4)


The Raiders struggles continue coming into a year where Carson Palmer has a full season, and is more fluent with the offense. The passing game is not the issue though. Darren McFadden has averaged around 3 yards per rush and has only cleared the century mark once this year (against a hurting Steelers defense). Now if you're going to give McFadden all the blame, hold on just a second. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp decided to switch the team to zone blocking rather than have a traditional man blocking scheme in the running game. While other teams in the NFL use the zone blocking scheme, Darren McFadden has always shown to struggle in it. Now that we're near halfway through the season and the Raiders have one of the worst rush offenses in the NFL, this tactic should be questioned. But hey, maybe the Raiders are just happy that he's actually healthy *knock on wood*.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)


There has not been much improvement since last season for the Chiefs. Coming into the season they deserved to be a little optimistic and curious as to how they could play with a healthy team. Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki, and Jamaal Charles all returned to their respective roles. Jamaal Charles has helped lead the Chiefs to one of the better rushing attacks in the NFL after coming off a torn ACL. He had 33 carries for 233 yards and another 55 yards receiving in their only win this season against the Saints. Matt Cassel was not having a good season before suffering a concussion against the Ravens at home, in which a fed up Kansas City crowd actually booed him off the field. Brady Quinn replaced him and has recently been named starter by Romeo Crennel, even when Cassel returns. The defense has not been anything special either. Glenn Dorsey, a 5th overall pick in 2008 had only six tackles in three games before he was injured. Eric Berry hasn't played his best football and Tamba Hali has four sacks, which is not too bad at this point but he is capable of more (26.5 the past two seasons).

AFC North:


Baltimore Ravens (5-2)


The first game of the season showed many people that Joe Flacco is starting to finally take command of the offense. The confidence carried into the next four weeks although they suffered a tough 24-23 loss in week 2 to the Eagles. The last three weeks have been a different story and Flacco has shown signs of his old inconsistent self. The confidence in Flacco has led the Ravens to become a bit pass happy. Ray Rice has done a great job on the ground again this year, but the offense would be more efficient if Ray had a couple more touches a game. Everything looked great until the game against the Cowboys where Lardarius Webb tore his ACL and Ray Lewis tore his triceps. Both season ending injuries to high caliber defenders. Haloti Ngata also partially tore his MCL, which he will elect to play through. This really hurts their defense, and the only good news to come of the situation is the return of "T-Sizzle", Terrell Suggs. Although the Cowboys game resulted in a win, the following week the Texans absolutely demolished Baltimore, showing they're the kings of the AFC right now. With veteran leaders like Suggs, Ngata, and Ed Reed, the Ravens may still be able to compete on defense. The offense depends on Joe Flacco's consistency.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)


Injuries have plagued the Steelers early and often this season. Lamarr Woodley, James Harrison, Maurkice Pouncey, Marcus Gilbert and Troy Polamalu have all missed time. Also not to mention first and second string running backs Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman have both been injured this year. Jonathan Dwyer has stepped up well in his opportunities carrying the rock. The first game of the season was played @ Denver, which meant Ryan Clark was not allowed to play due to a sickle cell disease. Remember, the Steelers ended their season in a playoff game against Denver in 2011. I believe Ryan Clark led the team in tackles last year and it troubles me to believe he wouldn't have been there on Demaryius Thomas' post route that sealed their fate. Anyways Ben Roethlisberger has had more pressure this season to help lead this depleted team. He has responded well with 11tds/3ints. Hard to believe with a couple crucial Ravens out and Steelers returning, that Pittsburgh won't make a great run for first place in the north.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)


This team has been on the verge of being a good team the last two seasons, but they just haven't gotten over the hump. Opportunity has hit them in the face this season and they need to take advantage. Both the Ravens and Steelers are hurting badly, and this is the best time to attack them in the standings. With that being said, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are still both very talented teams. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has had decent games on the ground and of course Andy Dalton and AJ Green continue to have a great connection on the field. Dalton is still learning the game, but beating divisional opponents other than the Browns is a must to spurt his team into the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns (1-6)


What is there to say about this team? They are doing everything they possibly can with a rookie quarterback and rookie running back leading the way. Brandon Weeden has shown an ability to play well a couple times, but has been inconsistent overall. Trent Richardson has shown to be a BEAST at times. But, it's just another rebuilding years for the Browns.

AFC South


Houston Texans (6-1)


The Houston Texans have been incredible this season. Very well balanced offense with a high pressure defense to support it. Leading that defense is former pizza delivery man JJ (S)Watt with 9.5 sacks and 10 deflected passes. If that's not a difference maker, I don't know what is. Unfortunately the Texans did suffer a major blow to their defense when Brian Cushing tore his ACL against the Jets on Monday Night Football. He is a captain of the defense and calls many important defensive audibles. On the offensive side, Matt Schaub has led a successful offense but with great help from Arian Foster of course. Foster has 659 yards and 9tds already this season. As long as everyone stays healthy and TJ Yates is not the quarterback leading the Texans into the playoffs, this team is an obvious Super Bowl powerhouse contender.

Indianapolis Colts (3-3)


The Colts have three wins and its not the end of the season? They have been very impressive in a clear rebuilding year. The Colts practically cleared out the house, keeping a only a few original veterans. It was shocking to hear that the Colts re-signed Reggie Wayne but he has been an incredible receiver in Andrew Luck's maturation process. Luck has looked very composed and a guy that knows how to win. Coby Fleener was drafted to help the young quarterback feel comfortable as they both graduated from and had great chemistry at Stanford. However, the two have not connected for a touchdown yet this season. Of course the Colts have also been playing with inspiration in the absence of their Cancer diagnosed coach, Chuck Pagano. Two of their wins have come against Green Bay and Minnesota, which shows their ability to beat good teams. Do I expect them to make a playoff run? No. But no one expected three wins at this point from the rookie led team either.

Tennessee Titans (3-4)


The Titans have had their fair share of problems. Jake Locker started the year as the starting quarterback. He separated his shoulder which has given Matt Hasselbeck back the job he once had, for the time being. Chris Johnson's stats became a lot more respectable after their past game. I wouldn't really give the stats too much credit though as they came against the Bills sad excuse for a defense. The Titans defense this year has been bad, especially after the this past game and the overtime game they had against the Lions that ended 44-41 in their favor. With this bad defense and a subpar offense at times, the Titans are only one game under .500. They are not completely out of it, but the Texans being at the top of the division certainly does not help.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)


The Jaguars didn't have great expectations coming into the season. Best case scenario? Their defense would come out and play as impressive as they did last year, Maurice Jones-Drew would have another stellar season, and Blaine Gabbert would make huge steps in progress, completing many passes to number five draft pick Justin Blackmon. This has not been the case though. Last game against the Raiders, Maurice Jones-Drew suffered a foot injury in just his third carry. It was a road game for the Jags but a home game for MJD as the Oakland native was very disappointed to get injured in front of friends and family. It is feared it may be the same Lisfranc injury that both Santonio Holmes and Cedric Benson suffered, which can sideline him for a while or possibly the season. In the same game, Blaine Gabbert suffered a torn labrum to his non-throwing arm. I've seen reports say he'll still play, however this has to be a painful thing to play through, especially if he gets hit the wrong way. Justin Blackmon has been targeted 37 times and has only 14 receptions. This just shows you that MJD has to carry this team and it's not looking great for them with his injury. Unfortunately their defense has not been much help this year, not even close to as productive as last season. The Jacksonville Jaguars have no real identity, hence the 1-5 record.


2 comments:

  1. Sean, this is some great stuff. Probably the best written article on here. Well done, keep them coming buddy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Tyler! All the articles on here are awesome to read. We better keep up with it, NFC coming soon!!

      Delete