College Football Analysis 10/30

This past week of college football included many high-profile matchups, and in turn, produced a lot of important results that will bear much weight come season's end. Here are some of the main points to take away:

The battle for #2 (minus Florida) is as close as ever.
While Oregon was expected to roll lowly Colorado, putting up 70 points is still absurd. What's even crazier is that 56 of them (and 0 of the Buffaloes' 14) came in a first half that ended with the Ducks' starters already on the sidelines. However, fellow (former) title contenders in the Pac-12, USC and Oregon St. did not help their cause. Losses by the two will certainly hurt the Ducks' strength of schedule going forward. Look for Oregon to punish the now #17 Trojans for that next week in a still very important game. On the other hand, Kansas State and Notre Dame were supposed to be tested this past week by highly ranked teams. K-State routed a very hot Texas Tech team that looked to be the Wildcats' toughest remaining test. Collin Klein continued his assault on the Heisman trophy, and the Wildcat D held a high powered offense relatively in check. As I said last week, the fact that Kansas State usually makes a living on close games makes these big wins all the more impressive. They will be tested once again this week by a resurgent Oklahoma State team. While the game was definitely closer than the score indicated, Notre Dame beat a very, very good Oklahoma team. The Irish shut down Landry Jones and the rest of Oklahoma's high powered offense, and the offense was surprisingly efficient. The only real test remaining is against USC at the Coliseum to end the season. The National Championship decision could be very interesting if these teams continue to play the way they have been.

The general population should want Alabama to beat LSU.*
I won't usually say who to root for, but here's why I will be rooting for Alabama (who I hate). I initially planned to pull for LSU, because it's always fun to see the team on top fall. Also, this would theoretically open up the top of the standings for potentially two of the teams I discussed above to sneak into the Championship. However, when you take a closer look, this could mean none of those three making it. In an eerily similar situation to last year, an LSU victory could ultimately set up a Championship rematch. Though the teams would only likely be #4 and #5 in next week's rankings, they would be very close to the top #3, and would only gain ground over the remainder of the season due to the SEC strength of schedule. And at the end of the day, voters will feel the same way they did last season when voting them 1-2, that the SEC is so good that 1 loss is on par with an undefeated season elsewhere. This may or may not be true, but regardless, I do not want to see the rest of the country shut out of the Championship game for the second straight year. There are too many other great teams out there. BUT, this likely won't be an issue, as Bama doesn't look like they're losing anytime soon. They throttled previously unbeaten (but untested) Mississippi State this week, proving again against quality competition that they belong at the top. This will be an intriguing game to watch, but I hope it's the only time I have to see it this year. But maybe the rematch would live up to the hype this time and both teams will have crossed the 50 before the fourth quarter!! No.
*UNLESS YOU WANT ANOTHER REMATCH

Notre Dame and Georgia took my advice from last week.
As you may recall, last week I stated that these teams needed to really step up this week after less than promising performances against sub-par teams. Boy did they listen. If I talk too much about Georgia's huge rivalry win over the Gators, I may go back to the depressed state that caused me to not write an article in almost a week, so I'll keep it short. Though Florida's offense is not exactly a powerhouse, the Bulldogs' D came to play this week. Though Georgia's offense didn't crack the Gator D too much, they did enough, including a great performance on the ground by Todd Gurley. This has the Bulldogs sitting pretty to reach the SEC Championship, and possibly sneak into the title game with a win there. See above for my analysis of the Irish, but they put together their best performance of the season after arguably their worst last week against BYU.

Pretenders have been exposed.
Though I am definitely not willing to put Florida in the pretender category, several other unbeatens went down. Mississippi State flopped in their first major test of the year, though they can hardly be faulted as that test came against Alabama. They will have to regroup quickly, otherwise they will fall victim to a tough November schedule. They could easily go from 7-0 to 7-3 very quickly. Oregon State expected to roll with starting QB Sean Mannion returning, but instead lost to 3-4 Washington. While the Huskies are better than that record indicates, this should simply not happen to a contender. If they do not get their act together, they are also in serious danger of being a 3 or 4 loss team at the end of next month. I will visit the Rutgers loss more thoroughly in a coming section, but as the theme would indicate, the Scarlet Knights could very well be a three loss team in the near future. Ohio, while never thought to be a serious contender, let their undefeated record fall at the hands of a 3-4 Miami (OH) team. Yikes. Guess how many losses they could easily have at the end of the season (3, see the pattern?). Bottom line, these teams will have to rebound for the first time this season, and if they don't, they could all lose the majority of their remaining games.

The MAC may be better than the Big East.
Just two weeks ago, the Big East was sitting pretty, with 3 ranked undefeated teams. Two weeks changes a lot. A week after Cincinnati fell at the hands of mighty Toledo, another MAC team took down the league's second undefeated team. And it was a resounding defeat. Kent State forced SEVEN turnovers against Rutgers, leading to a double digit victory. Louisville, the lone remaining unbeaten, scheduled smart and avoided the mighty MAC. Now don't get me wrong, Toledo and Kent State are good teams, but the fact remains that when a team in a "power" conference (I use that term loosely) is undefeated this late in a season, they should have no problem with MAC teams. This is what has brought me to the conclusion that the MAC is better. Northern Illinois, who I still believe is the best team in the MAC, could go toe to toe (and possibly beat) Louisville. The MAC's second and third best have already beaten the respective teams in the Big East. Then there is one-loss Ohio, and 6-3 Bowling Green and Ball State. In the Big East? Nobody else over .500. Now I understand that the MAC has more teams, but that is definitely not an excuse that the Big East should even have to use in this comparison.

The Big Ten is a mess.
I'm not really going to explain this thoroughly, but the top team is ineligible, and one of the next best teams also is. Michigan, who looked on track for a Rose Bowl berth, lost Denard Robinson, and consequently the game to Nebraska. The Huskers have now emerged (I guess) as the Legends Division favorite, while Wisconsin will meet whoever wins that division in the championship pretty much by default even after a loss to middling Michigan State. The other three eligible teams have one combined conference victory. Case closed.

I WILL make predictions this week.
I ran into time constraints last week, but in the next few days, you should expect my rankings, and the debut of my weekly picks.